Summary
Mizuho increased its SanDisk price target to $600.00 from $410.00 and retained an Outperform rating, aligning its view with the highest analyst projection for the data storage company. The firm highlighted structural supply constraints in NAND wafer capacity for 2026 and 2027 combined with demand growth exceeding 20% year-over-year as a rationale for materially stronger pricing and margin prospects through 2026 and 2027.
Analyst case and pricing outlook
Mizuho framed its upgrade around what it describes as sustained pricing tailwinds across legacy DRAM and NAND end-markets. The firm noted that no new NAND wafer capacity is expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, while demand for NAND is forecast to expand by more than 20% year-over-year. Those dynamics underpin Mizuho’s projection that annualized NAND pricing will rise 330% year-over-year in 2026 and then climb a further 50% year-over-year in 2027, driven by tight supply as artificial intelligence server demand accelerates.
The bank also emphasized a technical point related to NVIDIA’s ICMSP - specifically that the feature could add 16TB per GPU for KVCache. Mizuho argued that such an enhancement would increase inference activity and GPU utilization, which in turn would benefit memory suppliers such as SanDisk by deepening demand for high-density NAND solutions.
Revenue and earnings scenarios
InvestingPro data cited by Mizuho shows consensus expectations for SanDisk revenue growth of roughly 45% in the current fiscal year, even as the company carries only moderate debt levels on its balance sheet. Leveraging its pricing assumptions, Mizuho modeled potential upside to SanDisk’s earnings per share, forecasting a wide range of outcomes. Under strong pricing conditions, the firm indicated EPS could reach $38 to $80-plus in fiscal 2027/2028. Applying SanDisk’s historical average multiple of about 8x P/E to the upper end of that EPS range implies a theoretical price level near $670.
Market reaction and recent analyst activity
SanDisk’s shares have already shown dramatic moves this past year, surging more than 1,200% and trading close to their 52-week high of $509.50. The stock’s run has coincided with a wave of analyst updates and revised outlooks tied to improving NAND fundamentals.
- Benchmark raised its price target to $450 from $260 and retained a Buy rating, reflecting optimism on growth prospects.
- RBC Capital began coverage with a Sector Perform rating and a $400 price target, noting the company’s strong 2025 performance amid improving NAND dynamics.
- Mizuho separately indicated expectations for NAND pricing gains of 70-100% in 2026 in another context within its coverage.
- BofA Securities lifted its target to $390 from $300 and maintained a Buy rating after AI workload developments were disclosed.
- S&P Global Ratings revised SanDisk’s outlook to positive from stable and affirmed a 'BB' credit rating, citing anticipated stronger cash flow and improved leverage tied to favorable market dynamics.
Implications across sectors
The combination of limited incremental NAND wafer capacity and AI-related server demand suggests ripple effects for semiconductor suppliers, enterprise data center operators, and cloud-service providers that allocate increased budgets to memory capacity. Memory suppliers stand to benefit from rising prices and utilization, while downstream customers may face cost pressures if supply remains tight and pricing stays elevated.
Conclusion
Mizuho’s upward revision to a $600 target rests on a scenario of constrained supply meeting accelerating AI-driven demand for high-density memory, producing sharp NAND price appreciation in 2026 and continued strength in 2027. Multiple other market participants have adjusted price targets and credit outlooks in response to the same set of industry signals, leaving a broadly constructive analyst landscape for SanDisk as the company approaches the noted market inflection points.