Mizuho has moved Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) from an Underperform rating to Neutral and established a $77.00 price target, citing recent growth in the use of USDC on the prediction market Polymarket as a key positive development. The stock was trading at $69.96 at the time of the report, a level Mizuho describes as modestly above the InvestingPro Fair Value estimate, and well within the range of analyst estimates that span $65 to $280.
The upgrade follows an initial Underperform view published on June 8, 2025, when Circle shares were trading near $207. At that time, Mizuho flagged concerns including limited USDC distribution, a backdrop of declining interest rates and intense competition from Tether’s USDT. Since that earlier rating the share price has fallen sharply and currently sits about 77% below its 52-week high of $298.99.
Mizuho’s revised stance rests largely on what it calls a "looming catalyst" - the rising use of Circle’s USDC on Polymarket. The research note highlights that 2026 has opened strongly for the prediction market, which settles bets exclusively in USDC. InvestingPro data cited in the note indicates Circle currently carries more cash than debt on its balance sheet, a position Mizuho says could give the company flexibility as it pursues growth initiatives.
In quantitative terms, Mizuho estimates Polymarket is generating annualized volumes near $50 billion, which the firm notes is greater than three times Polymarket’s 2025 volume. Based on this activity, Mizuho models a potential 25% increase to USDC’s market capitalization if the momentum persists.
The research team has lifted its 2026 and 2027 projections for USDC in circulation, though it emphasizes those updated forecasts still fall short of consensus expectations. Mizuho points to a variety of prediction events on Polymarket - from mainstream sports events like the Super Bowl and the Olympics to more speculative questions such as whether a religious event will occur before 2027 - as possible demand drivers that could accelerate USDC adoption on the platform.
Separately, Circle has secured conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to form a national trust bank, First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A. According to the filings referenced in the research note, the proposed bank would hold the USDC reserve and operate under federal oversight if final approvals are granted.
Circle has also announced a multi-year strategic arrangement with Intuit to integrate stablecoin capabilities across Intuit’s financial products, including TurboTax and QuickBooks. The companies described the collaboration as intended to enable faster, lower-cost transactions on those platforms.
Other broker commentary noted in the update shows divergent analyst views. Tiger Securities trimmed its price target on Circle to $85 from $100 while keeping a Hold rating ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings. H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $85 target. H.C. Wainwright characterized USDC as a leading stablecoin but judged the current market valuation as largely reflective of near-term prospects.
Taken together, Mizuho’s upgrade and the surrounding analyst and corporate developments underscore a shifting outlook for Circle that balances the potential upside from Polymarket-driven USDC use against lingering market and competitive uncertainties.
Key points:
- Mizuho upgraded CRCL to Neutral with a $77 price target, citing Polymarket-driven USDC growth.
- Mizuho raised 2026/2027 USDC circulation estimates but kept them below consensus; Polymarket annualized volumes are estimated near $50 billion.
- Regulatory and commercial moves - conditional OCC approval for a national trust bank and a strategic partnership with Intuit - accompany analyst adjustments from other firms.
Risks and uncertainties:
- Competition from Tether’s USDT and historically "meager USDC distribution" were earlier concerns cited by Mizuho - these competitive pressures affect the stablecoin and crypto sectors.
- Macro influences such as declining interest rates were previously flagged as a headwind; interest rate dynamics influence crypto market behavior and fintech valuations.
- Mizuho’s revised USDC forecasts remain below consensus, indicating uncertainty in adoption trajectories even if Polymarket volumes remain elevated.