Mizuho on Monday increased its price target on AXIS Capital to $141.00 from $133.00 and maintained an Outperform rating on the specialty insurer's shares. The firm said the raise - a 6% increase in the target price - factors in AXIS Capital's momentum through the end of 2025, including accelerating premium growth and continued stability in the underlying loss ratio.
The new target is consistent with valuation data showing AXIS trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.43, according to InvestingPro metrics cited alongside the update. That P/E is presented in the update as implying the stock may be trading below its Fair Value.
Mizuho highlighted several operational contributors to its constructive view. AXIS delivered low-teens premium growth through 2025, and revenue expanded by 10.17% over the last twelve months. InvestingPro's assessment of the company's financial health is rated as "GREAT," a designation referenced by Mizuho in backing its outlook.
The bank also pointed to nearly $900 million of share repurchases completed by AXIS Capital by the end of 2025 and greater net favorable prior-year development, both of which Mizuho said support its positive stance. InvestingPro emphasized management's aggressive buyback activity, noting that these repurchases contribute to a high shareholder yield.
On the earnings front, Mizuho nudged up its estimates for AXIS Capital's per-share results to $13.55 for 2026 and $15.30 for 2027. Those projections represent increases of 2% and 4% versus the firm's prior forecasts, and they sit 2% and 6% above consensus estimates, respectively.
Combining the higher earnings trajectory with a one-quarter valuation roll-forward, Mizuho's updated price target equates to a potential 39% expected total return for AXIS Capital shares, the firm said.
AXIS Capital's own reported results for the fourth quarter of 2025 were highlighted alongside the analyst activity. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $3.25, outpacing a forecast of $3.12, and reported revenue of $1.73 billion versus an anticipated $1.63 billion.
Market reaction from other sell-side analysts followed the quarterly print. RBC Capital responded to the strong quarter by raising its price target on Axis Capital to $130.00 from $125.00, while retaining an Outperform rating.
Separately, AXIS Capital disclosed a special equity award for its chief executive, Vincent Tizzio, valued at $3.5 million. The grant is structured as 60% performance-based restricted stock units and 40% time-based restricted stock units, with performance measured over a three-year period.
Taken together, the updated analyst outlooks, company buybacks and quarterly results form the basis for the more optimistic valuation and earnings trajectory reflected in Mizuho's revision. The firm cited both operational momentum and capital deployment as supports for its Outperform rating.