Mizuho Securities has raised its valuation estimate for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), revising the price target upward to $48.00 from the previous $41.00. The brokerage maintains a Neutral stance on the company’s stock, which currently trades around $54.32, slightly below its 52-week high of $54.60. This marks a notable 151.83% increase in Intel’s share price over the last year, compared to data tracked by InvestingPro.
The decision by Mizuho follows the release of Intel’s financial outlook for the first quarter, which anticipates softer revenue figures. The company projects revenues of approximately $12.2 billion for the quarter, falling short of analyst consensus expectations near $13.3 billion. Additionally, gross margins are forecasted to contract by about 340 basis points quarter-over-quarter, settling at 34.5%. This is below market consensus and underscores short-term operational headwinds. Nevertheless, Intel remains profitable overall, with a reported gross profit margin of 33.02% across the trailing twelve months.
Further details from Mizuho's analysis highlight that declines in Intel’s Client Computing Group as well as its Data Center and AI divisions are attributed to existing supply constraints. The company is prioritizing manufacturing capacity towards data center products and the ramp-up of its Panther Lake processors, which exerts pressure on margins during this transition. These capacity decisions reflect Intel’s strategic emphasis on higher-value segments despite immediate cost challenges.
Looking ahead, Intel is focused on advancing key technology roadmaps including the Diamond Rapids platform, expected in the second half of 2026, and the acceleration of Coral Rapids anticipated around 2027. Alongside these, Intel seeks to expand its AI ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) business, targeting an annualized revenue run-rate exceeding $1 billion, indicating substantial growth potential within artificial intelligence markets.
Mizuho also pointed to potential catalysts for Intel’s foundry business stemming from increasing government involvement and reshoring of manufacturing operations. Customer announcements tied to foundry partnerships may emerge in the latter half of 2026 with production increases projected for 2027-2028. However, these gains are considered longer-term and not immediate contributors to revenue growth.
Despite these forward-looking opportunities, valuation metrics show Intel currently trading at a considerable premium. The stock holds an elevated price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 1200 and an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple near 27.15, signaling that the market is pricing in substantial growth expectations. These ratios suggest caution for value-oriented investors evaluating current price levels relative to earnings and cash flow.
Recent fourth-quarter 2025 earnings attracted significant market attention, with Deutsche Bank describing Intel's results as “solid” and noting revenues exceeded estimates by roughly 3%. Nonetheless, revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026 anticipates an 11% sequential decline, tempering enthusiasm among some analysts.
In the wake of this guidance, KeyBanc Capital Markets lifted its price objective for Intel from $60 to $65, driven by optimism regarding Intel’s foundry segment and robust demand within its server CPU market. The Data Center and AI segment, in particular, registered a 15% growth quarter-over-quarter, underscoring emerging momentum in key growth categories.
Analyst sentiment remains mixed across the industry. Evercore ISI adjusted its price target modestly upward to $45 from $41.10 while maintaining an “In Line” rating, reflecting balanced expectations. Conversely, BofA Securities retained an Underperform rating paired with a $40 price target, indicating skepticism about Intel’s longer-term competitiveness and profitability. Deutsche Bank also revised its target higher to $45 from $35, issuing a Hold rating, highlighting strong quarterly performance but expressing caution due to less favorable near-term outlooks.
These varying perspectives underscore the complexity of Intel’s current position amid sector-wide transitions and evolving market demand for semiconductors. Investors are advised to closely monitor supply constraints, product ramp timelines, and valuation metrics when considering Intel’s stock within semiconductor and broader technology equity portfolios.