Lynx Equity's recent analysis warns investors to watch closely for results and commentary from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI), saying the pair of reports could spill over into broader concern across AI-focused semiconductor and systems stocks.
The research note calls out a cluster of developments it sees as already pressuring AI-related equities: a reported weak adoption rate for Microsoft's CoPilot, ongoing tensions between NVIDIA and OpenAI, and Anthropic's rollout of an AI automation tool for legal services. Taken together, Lynx Equity argues these items have created a more cautious investor backdrop heading into the next round of earnings disclosures.
AMD outlook and investor skepticism
On AMD, Lynx Equity suggests management may express less conviction about the company's AI revenue trajectory for 2026 and 2027 relative to previous guidance. The firm adds that, even if AMD maintains its earlier outlook, investors could remain unconvinced until there is greater clarity around OpenAI funding dynamics. That potential lack of clarity could weigh on sentiment into and immediately after the earnings call.
Super Micro Computer dynamics
The note also focuses on Super Micro Computer, reporting the company may hesitate when discussing its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook, which Lynx Equity frames around a $36 billion target. The research firm says it has heard indications business conditions at SMCI softened over the quarter. SMCI was cited trading at $28.69 in the analysis, with shares down 47.55% over the past six months based on data referenced in the report.
Lynx Equity’s view is that after strong performance in December and January for AI semiconductor names, the market could see profit-taking if AMD and SMCI disappoint or sound cautious. The note recommends buying certain preferred names during any pullback, naming Lam Research, Micron Technology, SanDisk, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Intel as potential opportunities.
Valuation and research signals
The report also references a valuation signal indicating SMCI currently appears undervalued versus its fair value, a point the research firm says could provide an entry point for some investors should the stock retreat further.
Super Micro Computer corporate and product developments
Separately, the company has secured a $2 billion revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and a syndicate of lenders, a facility that matures on December 29, 2030 and is intended to support working capital and other general corporate purposes. Supermicro also unveiled a new high-performance Super AI Station at a Las Vegas event, a system the company says delivers more than five times the AI PFLOPS of traditional systems.
On the manufacturing front, Supermicro announced an expansion to support deployment of NVIDIA’s upcoming Vera Rubin and Rubin platforms, with an emphasis on boosting production capabilities for liquid-cooling technology.
Sell-side stance and revenue projections
On the sell-side, BofA Securities reiterated an Underperform rating on Super Micro Computer and maintained a $34.00 price target. Despite that cautious rating, BofA projects higher revenue for fiscal 2026 and 2027 versus Street consensus estimates, a contrast the Lynx Equity note highlights as part of the mixed signals surrounding SMCI’s near-term outlook.
Overall, Lynx Equity’s note frames the upcoming earnings from AMD and SMCI as potential catalysts for renewed volatility in AI hardware and systems names, particularly if either company issues tempered guidance or signals softness in demand. The firm also offers a constructive posture on selectively buying preferred semiconductor and related names on any sector pullback.
Key points
- Lynx Equity warns that AMD and SMCI earnings could trigger broader concern across AI hardware and systems stocks.
- The research note highlights recent sector headwinds, including weaker CoPilot adoption, NVIDIA-OpenAI tensions, and Anthropic’s new legal automation tool.
- SMCI has a recent cited trading price of $28.69 and is reported down 47.55% over the past six months in the analysis; the firm also secured a $2 billion revolving credit facility and launched a new Super AI Station product.
Risks and uncertainties
- Management commentary - AMD may express less confidence in its 2026/2027 AI outlook, which could weaken investor sentiment across the sector - impacting semiconductor and systems stocks.
- Demand softness at SMCI - reports of a softer quarter at Super Micro Computer and potential wavering on FY27 revenue guidance introduce uncertainty for server systems and AI infrastructure markets.
- External funding clarity - investor skepticism may persist until there is more definitive information on OpenAI funding, which could influence sentiment for companies tied to AI deployment and cloud infrastructure.