Overview
Leerink Partners raised its price target on NeuroPace Inc. (NASDAQ:NPCE) to $20.00 from $19.00 and kept an Outperform recommendation, citing sustained commercial momentum in the company’s core Responsive Neurostimulation (RNS) franchise. The research note follows NeuroPace’s preliminary fourth quarter 2025 and full-year 2025 financial disclosures released on January 13, and the new target implies upside from the recent share price of $15.13 despite the stock trading above InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment.
Commercial performance and financials
Leerink pointed to the company’s recent top-line strength, which aligns with InvestingPro data showing 24.08% revenue growth over the last twelve months. Preliminary results published by NeuroPace reported fourth-quarter revenue of $26.6 million, a 24% year-over-year increase, and approximately $100 million in total revenue for fiscal year 2025, representing 25% growth versus 2024. Revenue attributed to the RNS System, the company’s principal product, rose 26% to $22.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Regulatory pathway and clinical support
NeuroPace has submitted a Premarket Approval Supplement to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration seeking to expand the RNS System indication to include patients with drug-resistant idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE). The company is targeting potential FDA approval in the second half of 2026. Leerink characterized approval for the IGE indication as a potential "transformational catalyst" for the equity, reflecting the significance the firm assigns to that regulatory milestone.
The supplemental application is backed by data from the NAUTILUS trial, which reported a 77% median reduction in seizures after 18 months of therapy. The RNS System has also received Breakthrough Device Designation for this proposed new indication.
Market context and analyst views
NeuroPace has a market capitalization of about $504 million and a beta of 1.86, metrics that underline the stock’s heightened sensitivity to market moves. According to InvestingPro Tips included in the research note, that elevated beta has coincided with material share-price volatility; InvestingPro data also shows a 68.3% return for the stock over the past six months.
Wall Street sentiment reflected in analyst price targets spans from $15 to $22, with a consensus leaning strongly toward Buy. In response to the company’s recent financial disclosure, H.C. Wainwright raised its target to $19 while maintaining a Buy rating, and UBS reiterated its Buy stance with a $22 price objective. Leerink’s maintained Outperform rating indicates continued confidence in NeuroPace’s growth trajectory and risk/reward profile.
Profitability and outlook
Despite the sales gains and favorable analyst commentary, the coverage notes that analysts do not expect NeuroPace to be profitable this year. Leerink’s view balances the near-term financial outlook against the potential upside should the RNS System receive expanded approval for IGE in the second half of 2026.
Key takeaways
- Leerink raised its price target on NeuroPace to $20 from $19 and retained an Outperform rating.
- NeuroPace reported preliminary Q4 revenue of $26.6 million and about $100 million for fiscal 2025, with RNS System sales up 26% to $22.4 million in Q4.
- The company has submitted a Premarket Approval Supplement for the RNS System in idiopathic generalized epilepsy and is targeting potential FDA approval in the second half of 2026; NAUTILUS trial data showed a 77% median seizure reduction at 18 months.
Implications for markets and sectors
The developments primarily affect the medical device and healthcare sectors, with potential implications for specialty neurology markets and investors tracking medtech growth stories. Regulatory progress and trial outcomes are material to NeuroPace’s addressable market and could influence peer valuations and coverage in epilepsy-focused device therapeutics.
Risks and uncertainties
- Regulatory uncertainty - FDA approval for the IGE indication is pending and targeted for the second half of 2026; the timing and outcome remain uncertain.
- Profitability risk - Analysts do not expect NeuroPace to be profitable this year, which bears on near-term financial risk for investors.
- Market volatility and valuation - The stock trades with a relatively high beta of 1.86 and has experienced significant short-term price swings; InvestingPro notes the shares trade above its Fair Value assessment.
Conclusion
Leerink’s modest increase in its NeuroPace price target and the firm’s retention of an Outperform rating underscore continued confidence in the RNS franchise’s commercial momentum and the upside potential tied to a successful FDA expansion into idiopathic generalized epilepsy. That potential is counterbalanced by a lack of anticipated near-term profitability, regulatory timing risk, and notable share-price volatility.