Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

KeyBanc Upholds Sector Weight for Apple Stock Amid Mixed Growth Signals

Apple’s valuation remains stretched despite positive forecasts for early fiscal quarters and new product initiatives

By Hana Yamamoto AAPL
KeyBanc Upholds Sector Weight for Apple Stock Amid Mixed Growth Signals
AAPL

KeyBanc has confirmed its Sector Weight rating on Apple shares, highlighting a balanced near-term risk and reward outlook. KeyBanc upgraded its fiscal first-quarter outlook driven by anticipated gains in iPhone average selling prices and stronger Mac sales, while noting potential challenges for the second half of the fiscal year. Market analysts maintain diverse perspectives on Apple’s trajectory, with some touting robust demand and growth prospects, and others urging caution as the company faces a high bar for future expansion.

Key Points

  • KeyBanc maintains a Sector Weight rating on Apple with a focus on balanced near-term risk and reward.
  • Improved fiscal first-quarter estimates reflect higher iPhone average selling prices and stronger Mac performance.
  • Apple's second-quarter production trends are better than expected, yet concerns remain about second-half growth and margin challenges.

KeyBanc Investment Bank reiterated its Sector Weight rating on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), emphasizing a neutral risk-reward profile for the tech giant in the near term. Apple, currently valued at around $3.65 trillion and trading with a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.38, is seen as somewhat expensive relative to expectations for its near-term earnings growth.

Despite Apple’s shares declining 8.65% year-to-date—which has somewhat lowered investment risk according to KeyBanc—the stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicative of oversold conditions, suggesting the market has priced in some concerns.

Analysts at KeyBanc have raised their fiscal first-quarter earnings estimates for Apple, attributing this to improvements in the product mix, which boost iPhone average selling prices (ASPs), alongside stronger performance in the Mac segment.

For the fiscal second quarter, KeyBanc notes that iPhone production is tracking better than previously expected, with growth in average selling prices projected to persist. However, despite these promising early-quarter indicators, the firm expressed concerns over Apple's growth potential and margin forecasts in the latter half of the fiscal year, pointing out that expectations remain challenging.

Supporting perspectives from other financial institutions reflect a mix of optimism and caution. Evercore ISI forecasts Apple’s December quarter revenues to reach $140.5 billion with earnings per share of $2.71, exceeding consensus estimates of $137.4 billion in sales and $2.67 in earnings per share.

Goldman Sachs continues to endorse a Buy rating on Apple, forecasting a 9% increase in iPhone revenue for both fiscal 2026 and 2027, and projecting an EPS of $2.66 for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. UBS holds a Neutral rating, citing the strong demand environment for the iPhone 17 and estimating unit sales around 84.5 to 85 million for December 2025.

In terms of innovation, Apple is reportedly developing a new AI-powered wearable device designed in the form of a pin. This device is expected to include cameras, a speaker, microphone array, and wireless charging functionality. Additionally, the company is in discussions with payment networks Mastercard and Visa to introduce its digital payment service in India, targeting a phased rollout from 2026 contingent upon regulatory and commercial approval.

Following a recent roughly 5% dip in stock price, Goldman Sachs views this movement as an attractive entry point, emphasizing sustained momentum linked to the iPhone product refresh cycle.

Risks

  • Apple's growth prospects and margin expectations for the second half of the fiscal year are uncertain and seen as difficult to meet.
  • Market valuation appears high relative to near-term earnings growth, potentially limiting upside.
  • Regulatory and commercial approvals required for Apple's digital payment rollout in India could delay or impact adoption.

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