Summary: KeyBanc has reiterated an Overweight rating on AppFolio and left its price target at $255.00 after meetings with VP of Finance Bill Schroeder. The firm highlighted ARPU expansion potential and three named product initiatives as possible growth drivers for 2026. The call comes after AppFolio reported fourth-quarter results that beat consensus estimates, but the stock has slid recently and other analysts have issued mixed revisions to their targets.
KeyBanc's $255 price objective implies roughly a 34% upside from the stock's most recent quoted level of $189.88, according to the figures cited. InvestingPro data referenced by the firm indicates the share price is trading below its Fair Value model. Market action has been weak: the stock has dropped 13.24% over the last week and is trading close to a 52-week low of $186.45.
The analyst meetings were scheduled after AppFolio released its fourth-quarter results last week. KeyBanc said those discussions increased its conviction that AppFolio can expand average revenue per user - a key unit-economics metric - which aligns with the company’s 19.72% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months.
In its write-up, KeyBanc called out three specific offerings it views as potential contributors to 2026 revenue expansion: Resident Onboarding Lift (Second Nature), LiveEZ, and RealmX Performers. These products were singled out as examples of the company’s growth initiatives currently in development.
The firm also clarified an accounting detail disclosed by AppFolio: a one-time Stack partner payment included in Other Revenue was already accounted for in the company’s previously issued guidance for 2025, according to KeyBanc.
Overall, KeyBanc concluded that AppFolio is executing on its plan and has several development-stage opportunities that support a positive outlook for the business.
Earnings and analyst reactions
AppFolio’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 results topped analyst expectations, with earnings per share of $1.39 versus a forecast of $1.25, and revenue of $248.0 million compared with a projected $246.56 million. Despite those beats, multiple firms have moved their price targets or reiterated stances in recent days.
DA Davidson trimmed its price target to $275 from $325, citing weaker-than-expected value-added services revenue and describing the company’s 2026 guidance as conservative. Piper Sandler cut its target to $245 from $350 after AppFolio provided 2026 revenue growth guidance of 16.7%, which the firm said fell short of Wall Street expectations. KeyBanc itself adjusted a prior target to $255 from $270 while noting accelerating revenue growth of 21.9% year-over-year. William Blair maintained an Outperform rating, highlighting accelerating unit additions, revenue growth, and strong free cash flow.
Taken together, these analyst moves portray a mixed reception among research firms even after a quarter that outperformed consensus on the headline numbers.
Implication for investors: The maintained Overweight from KeyBanc signals continued confidence in AppFolio’s ability to grow ARPU and expand around targeted product offerings, but recent price weakness and divergent analyst reactions underscore uncertainty about the pace and mix of revenue growth going into 2026.