KeyBanc has maintained its Sector Weight recommendation on Avista (NYSE: AVA) in the wake of the utility's disclosures around its 2025 Request for Proposals (RFP) selections. The firm characterizes the mix of company-owned projects and power purchase agreements (PPAs) chosen through the RFP as "incrementally positive" for the company.
Avista, which carries a market capitalization of $3.27 billion and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.08, has analyst price targets that span from $36 to $49, according to InvestingPro data. KeyBanc highlighted that the RFP outcome should support between $250 million and $350 million of additional capital expenditure, a level that could lift the company's long-term rate base compound annual growth rate.
In its assessment, KeyBanc emphasized that Avista's approach to the selected projects allows the utility to conservatively finance the additions while addressing near-term capacity requirements. That financing flexibility also plays into ongoing discussions with prospective large-load customers, the analyst firm noted.
The RFP result, KeyBanc added, underscores Avista's ability to compete effectively in solicitation processes. That competitive standing matters because the company is expected to issue more frequent RFPs to serve a steady queue of proposed large loads totaling roughly 3,000 MW.
Operating and financial results have continued to shape the debate over Avista's trajectory. For the third quarter of 2025, Avista reported earnings per share of $0.36, outpacing the consensus estimate of $0.28 and generating a 33.78% positive surprise. The company attributed the upside in EPS to favorable regulatory outcomes and a deliberate capital deployment strategy.
Revenue for the quarter, however, totaled $394 million, falling short of the consensus forecast of $411.79 million. Market response to the mixed report included an update from Mizuho, which raised its price target on Avista shares from $39.00 to $42.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
Separately, Avista has filed a multi-year rate plan with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission. The filing requests base rate increases for both electric and natural gas services beginning in 2027. For electric service the company is seeking increases that total $111 million in 2027, with additional annual increases proposed through 2030. For natural gas service the request begins with $12 million in 2027.
Taken together, the RFP selections, capital expectations, recent earnings results and the multi-year rate filing present a cohesive picture of Avista's near-term financial strategy. The company is balancing project financing and capacity needs while pursuing regulatory approvals that would adjust revenue through base rate changes.
KeyBanc's retention of a Sector Weight rating reflects a measured view of these developments: the RFP outcome is seen as modestly positive, but execution on capital projects, regulatory approvals and demand from potential large-load customers remain central to the company's path forward.