Kepler Cheuvreux has revised down its one-year price target for LVMH to €680.00 from €690.00 but kept a Buy rating on the luxury goods group. The research house cited a combination of higher tax burdens, elevated financial expenses and stronger-than-expected foreign exchange headwinds as the basis for its decision to trim adjusted earnings per share projections by roughly 4% on average across 2026 through 2028.
Despite the reduction in the target, Kepler noted that its new figure still implies upside potential versus current market levels. InvestingPro data referenced by the research note indicates LVMH is trading marginally below its Fair Value, with the analyst consensus remaining a moderate buy.
Kepler described LVMH’s 2025 results as "reassuring," pointing to unchanged like-for-like sales trends in the fourth quarter even as the company faced comparatives that were approximately 400 basis points tougher year over year. The group topped consensus forecasts on both profit and free cash flow, benefits the firm attributed to disciplined cost savings, effective working capital management and lower capital expenditures.
Supporting the picture of underlying financial strength, InvestingPro data highlights LVMH’s 66% gross profit margins and reports nearly $18 billion in levered free cash flow over the last twelve months. Additional InvestingPro metrics cited by market commentary indicate the business operates with moderate levels of debt and has maintained dividend payments for 28 consecutive years.
On the brand front, Kepler observed that demand for Dior’s new collections has been strong year to date. That said, the broker warned that comparisons will remain demanding for the group in the first quarter of 2026, and foreign exchange pressures are expected to stay similar to 2025, at around €1 billion of headwind.
Analyst activity around LVMH has been active alongside Kepler’s update. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equalweight and set a price target of EUR635.00, noting that the company’s shares have significantly re-rated since summer 2025. By contrast, TD Cowen raised its price target to EUR700.00 from EUR685.00 while keeping a Hold rating, citing stabilizing trends in China and resilience in the U.S. market. TD Cowen also adjusted its fourth-quarter organic sales estimate to flat versus the Street consensus of a 0.5% decline.
These analyst moves offer investors a range of perspectives on LVMH’s near-term outlook: Kepler’s lowered but still constructive target reflects the impact of higher taxes, financing costs and currency effects on forward earnings, while other firms highlight valuation dynamics and differing regional demand signals.
Market participants will likely weigh the company’s demonstrated ability to generate strong margins and substantial free cash flow against the headwinds identified by Kepler and competing brokerages as they form investment views for the coming quarters.