Keefe, Bruyette & Woods has increased its price target on S&T Bancorp Inc. to $44.00 from $42.00 and left its current rating unchanged. The research firm tied the upward revision to what it called a "strong finish to 2025," noting specific line-item performance that exceeded its expectations.
KBW highlighted that S&T Bancorp's pre-provision net revenue outpaced the firm's estimate by $0.05 per share. The firm attributed that beat to stronger net interest income and higher fee revenue, signaling that the bank's revenue mix in the quarter provided a modest upside versus forecasts.
Capital return activity factored into KBW's updated outlook. S&T repurchased roughly 2% of its outstanding shares in the fourth quarter of 2025. Management also announced a new $100 million share repurchase authorization, which KBW notes represents about 6% of the company's outstanding shares. The reduction in share count was a material input to the research firm's modeling.
Accordingly, KBW raised its earnings projections for 2026 and 2027 by 3% each. The firm explained that the revisions reflected primarily the lower share count resulting from the Q4 2025 repurchase and additional modest buybacks that KBW incorporated into its first-half-2026 assumptions.
At the same time, KBW identified several elements that could influence whether the stock is re-rated by the market. The firm pointed to credit-related volatility, noting mixed developments in the fourth quarter: criticized and classified assets declined, but non-performing assets increased and net charge-offs were higher. KBW also highlighted the potential effects associated with S&T crossing the $10 billion regulatory threshold, indicating that mitigating those impacts will be important for investor sentiment.
S&T Bancorp's reported results for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed modest upside versus consensus. The company posted earnings per share of $0.89, versus an expected $0.88, a 1.14% surprise. Revenue totaled $105.29 million compared with an anticipated $103.44 million, a 1.79% surprise. According to the report, analysts and investors reacted favorably to the numbers and the company's capital-return actions.
Following the earnings and repurchase announcements, S&T's stock experienced a notable move higher. The article's reporting notes that analyst firms have not issued recent upgrades or downgrades on the name, leaving KBW's price-target change as the most prominent near-term research development.
Context and implications
The combination of slightly stronger-than-expected revenue and EPS, active share repurchases and a larger buyback authorization directly reduced the company's share count, which in turn prompted modest upward adjustments to multi-year earnings estimates. However, the mixed credit metrics and the prospect of increased regulatory scrutiny tied to the $10 billion threshold remain explicit areas of uncertainty that KBW says could affect future valuation.
Investors and market participants tracking regional banking and financials will likely weigh the buyback-driven per-share improvements against the credit dynamics and potential regulatory implications when assessing S&T's near-term outlook.