JPMorgan shifted its stance on Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (NYSE: CHD), moving the stock from Underweight to Neutral and raising the target price to $100.00 from $92.00. The firm attributed the upgrade to recent portfolio activity - including divestitures, discontinued brands, and acquisitions - that it says should help accelerate Church & Dwight's growth trajectory, even if the business has not yet reached its longer-term Evergreen model targets.
Analysts at JPMorgan highlighted consumption trends in the U.S. for 2025 as part of their rationale. The firm reported roughly 1% consumption growth across the company's U.S. portfolio for the year, and noted that excluding brands where management made portfolio choices would have resulted in approximately 3.5% consumption growth. That adjusted rate, JPMorgan observed, places Church & Dwight toward the top end of a peer performance band that it characterizes as roughly 2-3%.
The analyst team also pointed to a valuation argument underpinning the upgrade. Church & Dwight's shares have de-rated over the past year, falling about 20% while the consumer staples ETF XLP declined about 1% over the same period. JPMorgan said that the share-price underperformance has produced a valuation that better aligns with the company's risk and return profile as the firm sees it.
Recent quarterly results reinforced the bank's more constructive view. Church & Dwight reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $0.86, topping both JPMorgan's consensus estimate and the company's guidance by $0.02 and $0.03, respectively. The company recorded 0.7% organic sales growth for the quarter, or 1.8% organic growth when excluding the VMS business. Revenue for the period was reported at $1.64 billion, which aligned with market expectations, and the reported results were described as a beat for the quarter.
The earnings release was followed by a notable rise in premarket trading for the company's shares. Investors and analysts are watching how the portfolio decisions and integration of recent acquisitions will influence consumption and sales trends going forward.
Context and takeaway - JPMorgan's upgrade reflects a combination of corporate actions that the firm believes will support faster growth and a recent set of quarterly results that outperformed near-term expectations. At the same time, JPMorgan emphasized that Church & Dwight has not yet fully achieved its Evergreen model targets.