JPMorgan has reiterated an Overweight rating on Walt Disney Co. and maintained a $138.00 price target ahead of the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report, which is scheduled for February 2, per InvestingPro data. The price target implies material upside from Disney’s then-current trading level of $111.31 and aligns with InvestingPro’s view that the stock is undervalued under its Fair Value framework.
The firm updated its internal forecasts, increasing its segment operating income projection by 2% to $4.64 billion. That adjustment flows through to an adjusted earnings-per-share estimate of $1.54, a 3% increase on the firm’s prior outlook, versus a Bloomberg consensus figure of $1.55. JPMorgan attributes the revision to several company-specific developments across content, experiences and sports.
Key drivers cited by the firm include the theatrical and ancillary performance of "Zootopia 2," which has materially bolstered the Content Sales & Licensing segment, stronger trends in the Experiences business, and what JPMorgan describes as an earlier-than-expected resolution of the YouTube TV dispute within the Sports segment. These items collectively supported the modest upward revision to the firm’s near-term profitability profile.
Despite the upward tweak, JPMorgan expects Disney’s earnings trajectory to be backloaded through the fiscal year. The firm models adjusted EPS declining roughly 3% year-over-year across the first half of the fiscal year, before a rebound that produces approximately 27% growth in adjusted EPS in the second half. For fiscal 2026, JPMorgan projects adjusted EPS of $6.58 per share, an 11% increase year-over-year, which is consistent with InvestingPro’s EPS forecast for that fiscal year.
Attendance at domestic parks remains a focal point for investors and analysts. JPMorgan forecasts a narrowing of attendance declines to a 1% year-over-year drop in the first quarter, compared with a 2% decline in the fiscal fourth quarter, a trend the firm expects as the company laps hurricane-related disruptions. The bank anticipates a return to attendance growth in the second half of the fiscal year.
On valuation, JPMorgan views Disney as attractively priced at roughly 16 times forward earnings. The brokerage describes that multiple as a historically wide discount to the broader market while representing a narrow premium to media peers. InvestingPro metrics cited in the firm’s analysis show a notably low PEG ratio of 0.11, which the data provider interprets as a sign that the stock is materially undervalued relative to its growth prospects. InvestingPro also highlights Disney’s scale, noting more than $94 billion in annual revenue.
JPMorgan identifies potential upside catalysts including improved execution across streaming operations and a strong theatrical release schedule slated for calendar 2026. The firm’s outlook therefore combines a near-term moderation in earnings with longer-term opportunities tied to content, distribution and live experiences.
Corporate developments and industry moves reported alongside the analyst update underscore the company’s ongoing strategic initiatives. Disney has created a new enterprise marketing and brand organization and appointed Asad Ayaz as Chief Marketing and Brand Officer, a change intended to better align marketing efforts across Disney’s businesses and to strengthen global consumer engagement.
On the theatrical front, "Zootopia 2" has reached a milestone in China, becoming the highest-grossing Hollywood film ever released in that market by generating roughly 4.25 billion yuan, or about $610 million. The film’s box-office strength is cited both by JPMorgan and other brokerages as a tangible near-term performance driver for Disney’s content revenues.
Other market participants have reacted positively to the box-office results. For example, BofA Securities reiterated a Buy rating on Disney with a $140.00 price target, explicitly pointing to robust ticket sales for "Zootopia 2" as a favorable factor in its stance.
Further corporate and partner developments referenced in the reporting include a licensing deal between Disney and Adeia Inc., which prompted Adeia to raise its 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $425.0 million to $435.0 million; the specific terms of that agreement were not disclosed. Separately, Brazil’s antitrust authority Cade approved the ESPN-NFL arrangement involving Disney without conditions.
Collectively, the updates paint a picture of a company managing a near-term earnings profile that is expected to be weaker in the first half of the fiscal year, while retaining multiple pathways for revenue and profit reacceleration in the latter half and in fiscal 2026. Valuation metrics and franchise-level box-office strength are central to the bullish case cited by JPMorgan and other sell-side firms.
Analysis note: The firm’s expectation of backloaded earnings growth, continued scrutiny of parks attendance trends and reliance on content and distribution execution are key elements for monitoring ahead of the February 2 earnings release.