JPMorgan has reiterated its Underweight rating on Hennes & Mauritz AB and kept its price objective at SEK123.00, despite the company delivering a better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 performance. According to the investment bank’s analysis, H&M beat expectations on EBIT by 13% in the quarter.
The bank largely credits the earnings upside to lower-than-expected operating expenses, a development JPMorgan links in part to writedowns returning to more normalized levels. The firm explicitly cautions investors against assuming the expense-relief seen in the quarter will continue indefinitely.
H&M’s own guidance signals growing cost pressure ahead. Company management expects operating expenses to rise in 2026, forecasting an increase in the low single digits percentage excluding foreign exchange effects. That outlook is an important factor behind JPMorgan’s cautious stance.
Looking to the near term, JPMorgan projects that profits could fall roughly 16% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. The bank cites several drivers for that expected decline: muted top-line momentum, a material drag from foreign exchange translation, and the possibility that gross margin may soften more than previously assumed.
Share buyback and capital allocation
Separately, H&M’s board has approved a share repurchase program valued at SEK 1 billion, using the authorization granted at the 2025 annual general meeting. The program is targeted specifically at repurchasing the company’s own class B shares. The board described the initiative as a means to return capital to shareholders and to modify the company’s capital structure. No additional details on earnings or revenue were disclosed in the buyback announcement.
Implications
JPMorgan’s stance reflects a cautious view of H&M’s near-term profit trajectory despite the recent quarterly beat. The bank highlights that temporary reductions in operating charges and a normalization of writedowns were key contributors to the upside and that those factors should not be treated as recurring.
The share repurchase, while a clear signal of capital management intent, did not come with incremental financial results or revised sales guidance.
Key points
- JPMorgan reiterates Underweight and SEK123.00 price target on H&M after a 13% EBIT beat in Q4 2025.
- Bank attributes outperformance mainly to lower operating expenses and normalized writedowns, but warns this may not be sustainable.
- H&M announced a SEK 1 billion buyback targeting class B shares as part of capital allocation efforts.
Risks and uncertainties
- Operating expense pressure expected to increase in 2026, which could strain profitability in the retail sector.
- Significant foreign exchange translation drag could materially reduce reported profits in early 2026.
- Potential for softer-than-expected gross margin development, which would affect retailer margins and investor returns.