Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Jefferies trims NiSource price target to $49 while retaining Buy; dividend and federal extension noted

Analyst keeps bullish stance despite small cut in target, citing data center catalysts and solid earnings growth outlook

By Derek Hwang NI
Jefferies trims NiSource price target to $49 while retaining Buy; dividend and federal extension noted
NI

Jefferies lowered its 12-month price objective for NiSource (NYSE: NI) to $49 from $50 but kept a Buy rating, pointing to multiple catalysts tied to an expanding data center relationship. The research house’s estimates imply above-Street earnings-per-share growth profiles, and the company announced a quarterly dividend and received a short-term federal extension to keep one generating station online past its planned retirement.

Key Points

  • Jefferies cut its price target on NiSource to $49 from $50 but maintained a Buy rating, implying about 13% upside from the cited $43.41 share price; the stock traded near a 52-week high of $44.88.
  • Jefferies’ EPS estimates imply 8.9% CAGR for 2026-2030 and 9.2% CAGR for 2026-2035, above the Street’s 8.3% 2026-2030 projection; a modeled second 1.5GW GenCo contract in 2026 would lift EPS CAGR to 9.8% through 2035.
  • NiSource announced a $0.30 quarterly dividend payable Feb. 20, 2026, and NIPSCO received a federal order to extend operation of the R.M. Schahfer Generating Station for an additional 90 days beyond its planned retirement.

Jefferies has adjusted its 12-month price target on NiSource (NYSE: NI) down to $49.00 from $50.00 but left its recommendation at Buy, according to the firm’s latest note. The new target equates to roughly a 13% potential upside from NiSource’s then-current share price of $43.41, with the stock trading close to its 52-week high of $44.88.

Data cited in the report indicate NiSource delivered an 18.21% total return over the past 12 months, per InvestingPro figures.

Jefferies’ forecast work includes projected earnings-per-share trajectories that the firm views as favorable relative to consensus. Its EPS assumptions imply growth rates of 8.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2026-2030 and 9.2% CAGR for 2026-2035, both of which Jefferies notes exceed the Street’s 8.3% CAGR expectation for 2026-2030.

The research team has incorporated only the first GenCo contract into its baseline estimates, but it models a scenario in which a second, smaller GenCo award - a 1.5GW contract expected in 2026 - would lift EPS CAGR to 9.8% through 2035. Jefferies highlights that clustering of data center wins is a central theme for 2026 and that successful execution will be essential for NiSource to realize the higher growth pathway.

In its commentary supporting the retained Buy recommendation and $49.00 target, Jefferies pointed to "numerous catalysts as extent of AMZN relationship unveiled." The firm emphasized execution risk as a key variable in converting those catalysts into realized results.


Separately, NiSource announced a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share, scheduled to be paid on February 20, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 3, 2026.

On the regulatory and operational front, NiSource’s unit Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO) received a federal order permitting an additional 90-day operation of its R.M. Schahfer Generating Station beyond its planned retirement date.

The firm has also attracted attention from other analysts. Mizuho raised its price target on NiSource to $50 from $44, citing a $15 billion Amazon data center agreement as a significant influence. Evercore ISI removed the stock from its Tactical Outperform list after strong third-quarter results, retaining an "In Line" rating based on the firm’s view of the adjusted risk/reward profile. In earlier coverage, Jefferies had upgraded NiSource from Hold to Buy and set a $50 target, referencing optimistic expectations around data center demand and a projected 8.4% EPS growth rate from 2026 to 2030.

Taken together, the analyst activity and corporate developments underscore how data center contracts, regulatory actions, and dividend policy are shaping investor assessments of NiSource’s prospects in the utility sector.

Risks

  • Execution risk - Jefferies stresses that successful execution is critical for NiSource to achieve the modeled EPS growth rates; this affects the utilities and industrials sectors.
  • Regulatory and operational uncertainty - The short-term federal extension for the Schahfer plant highlights regulatory intervention and operational timing as variables that could alter near-term outcomes for power generation and regional utilities.
  • Concentration of contract wins - The analysis assumes clustering of data center contracts (including potential Amazon-related deals); if those awards do not materialize as modeled, projected EPS trajectories for NiSource’s regulated and unregulated businesses could be impacted.

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