Jefferies has reduced its price target for Apogee Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: APGE) to $95 from $98, while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares. The new target falls within analysts' broader range of $83 to $137, and the consensus remains strongly bullish with an average rating of 1.25.
The firm said the revision follows market moves after two external developments involving OX40-targeted programs. Apogee's shares declined about 6% after reports that Amgen discontinued its OX40 collaboration with Kyowa Kirin and that Sanofi deprioritized amlitelimab in certain non-atopic dermatitis indications. InvestingPro data cited by analysts indicates the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) is in oversold territory, suggesting the equity may have reacted more sharply than the underlying fundamentals warrant.
In its note, Jefferies highlighted safety disclosures from the companies involved in OX40 programs. Sanofi confirmed a single case of Kaposi’s Sarcoma (KS) in a patient infected with human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) during Phase 2/3 studies. Kyowa Kirin also disclosed one KS case tied to rocatinlimab in a high-risk population. Jefferies does not view these isolated events as likely to derail the commercial opportunity for OX40-directed therapies broadly, but it does anticipate regulators may require a black box warning or similar label language for high-risk groups.
On balance, Jefferies continues to expect OX40 agents to offer a safer profile than Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors, a factor the firm believes supports the long-term commercial thesis for products in this class. To reflect potential constraints on use among high-risk patients, Jefferies trimmed its risk-adjusted peak sales projection for Apogee’s ’279 combination therapy from $1.8 billion to $1.6 billion.
The Jefferies update comes amid a flurry of analyst activity around Apogee. RBC Capital cut its rating from Outperform to Sector Perform while raising its price target to $83, citing valuation concerns even after the company’s shares climbed 108% over the previous year. Separately, Craig-Hallum raised its price target on Apogee to $116 and maintained a Buy rating, pointing to encouraging Phase 1b results for APG777 in asthma as the rationale.
Other firms have also weighed in. UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $100 price target, emphasizing Apogee’s emphasis on developing long-acting biologics. Wolfe Research began coverage with a Peerperform rating, flagging how the market is pricing Apogee’s IL-13 program. In an additional update, RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating with a $70 target after observing sustained fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) reduction in a recent study.
These divergent analyst views illustrate a range of interpretations about Apogee’s clinical data, valuation, and commercial prospects. Jefferies’ modest downward adjustment to both price target and peak-sales assumptions signals caution around potential labeling or usage limits in high-risk groups while stopping short of implying a broader safety failure for OX40 therapies.
For investors, the near-term dynamic centers on how market sentiment responds to evolving safety disclosures and whether technical indicators, such as the RSI, reflect an overreaction that could present an entry point. From a product perspective, the debate now hinges on the balance between incremental safety signals in limited populations and the anticipated advantages of OX40-targeted agents versus alternative classes.
Summary
Jefferies trimmed Apogee’s price target to $95 from $98 and slightly lowered its risk-adjusted peak sales estimate for the ’279 combination therapy from $1.8 billion to $1.6 billion after market moves tied to OX40 program developments. The firm expects any Kaposi’s Sarcoma findings to be limited to high-risk populations and still views OX40 agents as having a favorable safety profile relative to JAK inhibitors. Multiple other firms have issued mixed ratings and price targets, reflecting divergent views on Apogee’s clinical progress and valuation.