Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

Jefferies trims Aon price target to $408 after management outlines 2026 outlook

Firm keeps Buy rating as guidance shapes modest adjustment; Wells Fargo separately nudges its target to $443

By Caleb Monroe AON
Jefferies trims Aon price target to $408 after management outlines 2026 outlook
AON

Jefferies reduced its price target for Aon Corp to $408 from $413 while retaining a Buy rating, following Aon’s detailed 2026 guidance. The adjustment reflects management’s projection of mid-single-digit or better organic growth and 70-80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, plus updated expectations around AAU cost savings and associated implementation costs. Other analyst activity includes Wells Fargo lowering its target slightly to $443 and maintaining an Overweight rating.

Key Points

  • Jefferies cut its Aon price target to $408 from $413 but kept a Buy rating; analyst targets average implies about 14% upside with a $326 to $443 range.
  • Aon’s 2026 guidance calls for mid-single-digit or better organic growth and 70-80 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion; revenue grew 9.45% over the last 12 months with a five-year CAGR of 9%.
  • Valuation metrics cited include a 15.5x EBITDA multiple used by Jefferies, current EV/EBITDA of 15.65x, a P/E of 20.54 and a PEG of 0.56; Wells Fargo set a $443 target and maintained Overweight.

Jefferies has moved its 12-month price target on Aon Corp to $408.00 from $413.00, while sustaining a Buy recommendation on the insurance brokerage. The $5 reduction follows Aon’s release of its 2026 guidance and aligns with the broader analyst community, which collectively points to an average price target implying roughly 14% upside and a range spanning $326 to $443.

Management’s guidance for 2026 calls for mid-single-digit or better organic revenue growth, alongside 70 to 80 basis points of adjusted operating margin improvement. Jefferies described that guidance as reasonable in light of Aon’s recent operating track record: revenue rose 9.45% over the last twelve months and the company has delivered a five-year compound annual growth rate of 9%.

In its analysis, Jefferies underscored pockets of strength within Aon’s business. The firm noted a supportive environment in the Commercial Risk Solutions segment, including demand from data center clients, and identified tailwinds for the Health segment even though that division missed on the quarterly results.

Jefferies also pointed out Aon’s updated expectations for cost savings under the Aon Accelerating Aon United program. While the company has increased the outlook for AAU savings, Jefferies emphasized that achieving those savings will require incremental spending.

Valuation assumptions remain central to Jefferies’ calculus. The firm continues to apply a 15.5x EBITDA multiple to Aon shares. Under that multiple, the new price target corresponds to an expected total return of about 17%. At present, Aon’s enterprise value to EBITDA sits at 15.65x, the price-to-earnings ratio is 20.54, and the PEG ratio stands at 0.56.

Recent company results and other analyst moves add context to the updated target. Aon reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $4.85, topping the $4.75 forecast, while revenue came in at $4.3 billion versus an anticipated $4.38 billion. Separately, Wells Fargo reduced its price target on Aon to $443 from $448, retaining an Overweight rating after reviewing Aon’s 2026 guidance and projected adjusted EPS growth.

Taken together, Jefferies’ modest downward revision, the company’s guidance, recent quarterly results and the independent Wells Fargo adjustment give investors a clearer sense of Aon’s near-term financial trajectory and the assumptions that underlie analyst valuations.

Risks

  • The Health segment posted a quarterly miss, signaling potential near-term volatility in that part of Aon’s business - relevant to the health insurance and benefits market.
  • Higher upfront or incremental costs required to realize increased AAU cost savings could pressure near-term margins - a risk for Aon’s margin recovery assumptions.
  • Revenue in the most recent quarter fell short of expectations ($4.3 billion reported versus $4.38 billion expected), which may introduce uncertainty around top-line momentum in the commercial insurance sector.

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