Jefferies has revised its price target for Travelers Companies Inc. (NYSE:TRV) downward by $5, setting it at $305 from the previous $310 while affirming a Hold rating on the insurer's stock. This updated target remains above the existing analyst valuation range of $247 to $324. Currently, Travelers trades with a price-to-earnings ratio near 9.94.
The adjustment in the price target follows Travelers' latest quarterly report, which yielded robust earnings that exceeded margin forecasts, accompanied by an upwards revision in guidance for both the business insurance segment and net investment income. The company has demonstrated commendable financial metrics, recording a 21% return on equity and 5.18% growth in revenues over the past year.
Despite the favorable performance indicators, Jefferies has moderated its outlook due to emerging concerns. These include a sustained slowdown in rate increases per business insurance customer and intensified competition within the personal insurance market. Such factors contribute to a more cautious stance on Travelers' forward prospects.
The research firm anticipates a worsening in underlying loss ratios, which may be partly offset by better expense management, reflecting improved expense ratios for Travelers. Additionally, the insurer's forecasted catastrophe load for 2026 appears higher than prior estimates, contributing further to the tempered forecast.
In line with these views, Jefferies has enhanced its earnings estimates related to business insurance and net investment income. The firm's valuation applies a 1.7 times price-to-book ratio excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, culminating in the modest reduction to the price target.
Supplementary market commentary includes a strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings reveal for Travelers, with earnings per share hitting $11.13, significantly overpassing the $8.74 consensus expectation. Revenue likewise outperformed, amounting to $12.43 billion against the projected $11.04 billion.
Market analysts have responded with measured perspectives: UBS retains a Neutral rating, highlighting Travelers’ earnings surpass and active share repurchase program. Mizuho lowered its price target to $304 from $315, maintaining a Neutral rating, attributing the change to updated industry multiples and slightly revised 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts consistent with consensus. Citizens analyst Matthew Carletti reaffirmed a Market Perform rating, noting that the earnings upside was influenced by favorable reserve development and diminished catastrophe losses. Collectively, these insights illustrate Travelers' strong operational execution balanced by sector challenges.