Jefferies has changed its stance on BJ’s Wholesale, moving the stock rating from Buy to Hold while trimming its price target to $90 from $120. The firm said the decision reflects growing concerns about the retailer’s growth plan, which is shifting into more competitive territories and could raise execution and margin pressures for the warehouse club operator.
At the time of Jefferies’ update, BJ’s shares were trading at $95.46, below their 52-week peak of $121.10. Jefferies noted that despite the company achieving modest revenue growth of 2.82% over the last twelve months, the strategic shift into denser competitive markets warrants a more cautious outlook.
The analyst team highlighted that available white space in BJ’s core regions appears limited, and that the company’s push further into Western markets and its Dallas-Fort Worth rollout introduce incremental risk factors. In light of those dynamics, Jefferies projects comparable-store sales growth closer to 2% through 2028, which it said is below the consensus estimate of 3%. The firm also cited concerns about food inflation as a contributing headwind to top-line momentum.
Jefferies’ $90 price target is derived from applying BJ’s roughly five-year average multiple - about 19 times earnings - and the firm concluded that the current growth outlook will cap potential multiple expansion.
Those views come as BJ’s recently reported third-quarter 2025 results that topped expectations on the earnings line. The company reported earnings per share of $1.16, above the $1.10 forecast, while revenue came in steady at the anticipated $5.35 billion.
Analysts outside Jefferies have taken varied approaches to updating their targets for BJ’s. UBS moved its price target to $120, pointing to progress in general merchandise sales even as home and seasonal categories showed restraint. Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $105 and cited ongoing investment needs to maintain competitiveness as a driver of its revision. Evercore ISI raised its target to $95 and emphasized BJ’s focus on long-term member benefits as a positive element. TD Cowen trimmed its target to $108 after noting that BJ’s comparable-sales growth of 1.8% missed market expectations, while acknowledging that new store performance was a constructive datapoint.
Together, the analyst revisions paint a mixed picture for BJ’s near-term outlook: the company’s latest quarter cleared consensus on EPS and matched revenue expectations, but concerns about geographic expansion, margin pressure and comparable sales have prompted a range of price-target adjustments across the sell side.
Sector impacts: The developments primarily affect the retail and equity markets, with implications for warehouse-club competitors and investors monitoring growth-vs.-investment trade-offs.