Analyst Ratings January 22, 2026

Jefferies Affirms Strong Buy on Freeport-McMoRan Amid Optimistic Grasberg Recovery

Analyst confident in production ramp-up and earnings growth despite modestly cautious 2028 outlook

By Hana Yamamoto FCX
Jefferies Affirms Strong Buy on Freeport-McMoRan Amid Optimistic Grasberg Recovery
FCX

Jefferies has sustained its Buy rating and price target of $68 for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), highlighting robust fourth-quarter 2025 results and an optimistic forecast for the Grasberg mine's full operational return by 2027 end. The mining giant surpassed profit and cost expectations, supporting projections of increased production and valuation growth.

Key Points

  • Jefferies sustains Buy rating with $68 target, confident in Grasberg mine reaching full capacity by end of 2027.
  • Freeport-McMoRan's Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2.03 billion surpassed both Jefferies’ and consensus forecasts, supported by higher copper sales and lower costs.
  • Despite modestly negative 2028 sales and capital expenditure guidance, production projections remain achievable and underpin positive valuation outlook.

Jefferies has upheld its Buy rating on Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) stock accompanied by a maintained price objective of $68. The investment firm bases its positive stance on expectations that Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine will resume full capacity by the conclusion of 2027, setting a foundation for sustained growth.

In its recent fourth-quarter 2025 financial disclosures, Freeport-McMoRan reported an adjusted EBITDA of $2.03 billion. This result notably surpassed Jefferies' own forecast of $1.64 billion and consensus estimates, which stood at $1.49 billion. Copper sales volume achieved 0.7 billion pounds, exceeding the earlier guidance of 0.6 billion pounds.

The company also demonstrated strong operational efficiency, posting C1 cash costs at $2.22 per pound, below the anticipated $2.47 per pound. This cost advantage is expected to further improve during the subsequent year as ramp-up activities at the Grasberg site progress.

Jefferies pointed out that Freeport-McMoRan's latest guidance for copper sales and capital expenditures through 2028 was slightly less encouraging compared with the investment firm's internal models. Nevertheless, they view the revised production targets as attainable with room for potential outperformance.

Recognizing Freeport-McMoRan as a prime investment choice within the global mining industry, Jefferies anticipates that the stock will benefit from enhanced profitability and a broadening of equity valuation as production operations normalize and expand.

Additional confirmation of Freeport-McMoRan's solid performance comes from recent reports of its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, where the company surpassed both BofA Securities and market consensus expectations on adjusted EBITDA. The earnings beat was driven by a combination of increased sales volumes, reduced operating expenses, and advantageous provisional copper pricing during the period. Following this, BofA Securities reiterated a Buy recommendation and preserved their $68 price target on Freeport-McMoRan shares.

Freeport-McMoRan is intensively engaged in restoring full capacity at its Grasberg mine following a recent operational incident. The company forecasts recovering approximately 85% of production by the latter half of this year. CEO Kathleen Quirk characterized the incident as 'humbling' and reaffirmed the company’s commitment to reinstating operations safely and sustainably. She further emphasized significant projected growth in copper demand driven notably by developments in artificial intelligence, compensating for weaker demand from other sectors.

These elements illustrate Freeport-McMoRan's strategic focus on stability and growth amid operational challenges and evolving market dynamics.

Risks

  • Potential delays or setbacks in Grasberg mine restoration could impact production and earnings recovery.
  • Despite cost efficiencies, copper sales and capital expenditure forecasts for 2028 are slightly below some model expectations, introducing earnings uncertainty.
  • Operational incidents and market demand fluctuations, including sector-specific weaknesses, could affect Freeport-McMoRan’s financial performance.

More from Analyst Ratings

Stifel trims Eagle Materials price target to $232 as housing softness weighs on wallboard results Feb 2, 2026 UBS Sticks With Buy on McDonald’s Ahead of Q4 Results, Flags 2026 Upside Feb 2, 2026 Truist Raises Caterpillar Target to $786 After Record Backlog, Analysts Follow Suit Feb 2, 2026 UBS Sticks With Buy on Yum! Brands Ahead of Q4 Results, Flags Marketing Impact at Pizza Hut Feb 2, 2026 Truist Lifts Minerals Technologies Price Target to $89, Cites Normalizing H&PC Growth Feb 2, 2026