H.C. Wainwright adjusted its target price for Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) upwards to $19.00 from $14.00 while reaffirming a Buy rating on the satellite-based data and analytics firm. The revision reflects an optimistic outlook predicated on increased defense expenditures across Europe, driven largely by evolving geopolitical tensions and a revised NATO expenditure framework.
The research house drew attention to a significant shift away from the post-Cold War era’s downsizing of military budgets — often described as the 'peace dividend' — highlighting that from 2025, NATO countries aim to boost defense spending to roughly 3.5% of GDP, a notable rise from the prior 2.0% target. This pivot is expected to provide a robust tailwind for Spire Global's products and services, especially given its European manufacturing footprint and proven data-as-a-service offerings.
Spire Global shares have surged by 64.1% in the year so far, a remarkable outperformance compared to the Russell 2000’s 9.5% gain over the same timeframe. Despite this significant appreciation, H.C. Wainwright maintains its positive stance, suggesting that further price increases could occur over the course of 2026.
The firm underscored the impact of Spire’s sale of its Maritime segment in April 2025, which bolstered the company’s balance sheet. Complemented by cost reduction initiatives, this has placed Spire on sounder financial footing. Coupled with its strategic positioning and a validated business model centered on subscription revenue, Spire appears well-placed to capitalize on the anticipated rise in European defense budgets.
Consequentially, H.C. Wainwright ramped up the revenue valuation multiple applied to Spire Global from 5.0 times to 7.0 times, aligning it with multiples observed across the broader space technology sector. The brokerage anticipates that ongoing favorable developments, meaningful revenue growth on a pro forma basis, and the prospect of profitability within the calendar year underpin this valuation enhancement.
Additional corporate developments spotlight Spire’s ambition to broaden its market footprint and technological capabilities. A recent partnership with AiDASH will integrate Spire’s enhanced weather intelligence into AI-powered vegetation and outage forecasting systems aimed at bolstering the resilience of North American electric grids. Furthermore, Spire successfully deployed nine satellites aboard SpaceX's Twilight mission, including the Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder, which gathers comprehensive atmospheric data to improve weather forecasting precision.
Strategic staffing moves include the addition of Admiral Christopher W. Grady, formerly Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and public policy expert Edward J. Newberry to Spire’s freshly created Advisory Board. These appointments reflect a stronger emphasis on government and defense market engagement.
Taken together, these dynamics reflect Spire Global’s concerted efforts to scale operations, deepen defense sector integration, and boost commercial momentum amid a shifting geopolitical environment emphasizing defense readiness.