H.C. Wainwright increased its price objective for Protagonist Therapeutics (NASDAQ:PTGX) to $117.00 from $80.00 on Friday and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. The new target implies roughly a 47% upside from PTGX's last quoted price of $79.73, a level that follows a 103.81% rise in the stock over the past 12 months.
The analyst update comes in the wake of a December 29, 2025 New Drug Application submission for rusfertide in polycythemia vera, filed jointly by Takeda and Protagonist. That filing begins a 120-day period after which Protagonist will have 90 days to elect whether to opt in or opt out of a profit-sharing arrangement tied to the program.
H.C. Wainwright's baseline expectation is that Protagonist will most likely "opt out" of the profit-sharing deal. Under the terms outlined by the firm, an opt-out would make available up to $400 million in upfront cash, a weighted average royalty rate of 21% based on $1.5 billion in projected net sales, and an additional $75 million contingent on FDA approval.
Balance-sheet metrics cited in the research note emphasize the company's strong liquidity position. Data supplied with the firm’s analysis indicate Protagonist carries more cash than debt and reported a current ratio of 13.05. H.C. Wainwright argues that proceeds tied to the rusfertide program should further bolster the balance sheet, supporting additional investment in early-stage programs while leaving room to return capital to shareholders. The firm notes the potential magnitude of such cash flows is meaningful for a business currently valued at about a $5 billion market capitalization.
On valuation and pipeline probability assumptions, H.C. Wainwright assigned a 15% probability of success to both PN-8047 and the IL-4R antagonist programs, and a 10% probability of success for the obesity assets. The research house also raised its enterprise value-to-sales multiple assumption from 8.3x to 9x.
Trading metrics cited in the analysis show Protagonist at elevated valuation multiples. The shares trade with a price-to-earnings ratio of 109.8 and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 215.49, figures that the firm says reflect substantial investor optimism even as analysts anticipate a decline in revenue this year.
Analyst commentary from other firms included in the update points to a broadly constructive consensus. Truist Securities raised its price target to $110 and kept a Buy rating, highlighting 2026 as a pivotal year with an anticipated approval for icotrokinra in psoriasis and a regulatory review for rusfertide. JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating with a $93 target, citing momentum toward Icotyde’s launch and possible royalty value. Citizens preserved a Market Outperform rating with a $102 target after positive VERIFY trial data that demonstrated significant improvements for rusfertide. Jefferies maintained a Buy rating and a $95 target, flagging growth potential as two programs approach regulatory decisions. Clear Street raised its target to $91, increasing its peak penetration estimate for rusfertide in polycythemia vera on the basis of the drug’s potential for self-administration.
Key points
- H.C. Wainwright raised its PTGX price target to $117 from $80 and maintained a Buy rating, putting implied upside at about 47% from the current price of $79.73.
- The rusfertide NDA submitted December 29, 2025 triggers a 120-day period followed by a 90-day decision window on profit-sharing, with H.C. Wainwright expecting an opt-out that could yield up to $400 million upfront plus royalties and a $75 million approval milestone.
- Protagonist shows strong liquidity metrics, including more cash than debt and a reported current ratio of 13.05, and the potential cash from rusfertide could fund pipeline investments and shareholder returns.
Risks and uncertainties
- The timing and outcome of the company's decision to opt in or opt out of the profit-sharing arrangement are not certain, and that choice materially affects cash flow and future royalty exposure - affecting both the biotech sector and investor returns.
- Pipeline success probabilities remain modest, with assigned probabilities of 15% for PN-8047 and the IL-4R antagonist and 10% for obesity programs, underscoring clinical and regulatory risk that impacts projected future revenues.
- Valuation is high relative to fundamentals, with a P/E of 109.8 and EV/EBITDA of 215.49, indicating market expectations may outpace near-term revenue prospects and exposing equity investors to downside if forecasts are not met.
This analysis consolidates recent analyst actions and the company's program milestones without predicting outcomes. It notes the potential financial implications of the rusfertide regulatory pathway and observes how those prospects are being reflected in price targets and market multiples.