Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

Goldman Sachs Reaffirms Buy on IBM, Eyes $350 Target After Strong Q4 Results

Robust revenue, margin beats and a growing Generative AI backlog underpin the call as IBM lifts 2026 guidance and cash-flow outlook

By Derek Hwang IBM
Goldman Sachs Reaffirms Buy on IBM, Eyes $350 Target After Strong Q4 Results
IBM

Goldman Sachs has maintained a Buy rating on IBM with a $350 price target after the company reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Street expectations. IBM delivered stronger-than-expected revenue, earnings and free cash flow, while flagship software and infrastructure businesses posted double-digit gains in constant currency. Management outlined 2026 targets that include more than 5% constant currency revenue growth and an increased free cash flow outlook near $15.7 billion.

Key Points

  • Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating on IBM with a $350.00 price target after Q4 results that beat consensus estimates - impacts the IT services and software sectors.
  • Q4 revenue was $19.69 billion (Street: $19.22 billion); Software revenue rose 10.7% CC and Infrastructure revenue rose 16.6% CC, with EPS from continuing operations of $4.52 (Street: $4.30).
  • IBM raised its free cash flow outlook to about $15.7 billion for 2026 and reported a Generative AI backlog of $12.5 billion, supporting cash-flow and AI-related services narratives.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday reiterated a Buy rating on IBM (NYSE:IBM) and kept a $350.00 price objective after the technology company reported fourth-quarter results that topped analyst forecasts. The stock, which carries a market capitalization of $276 billion, has climbed 33.7% over the past 12 months, outpacing many rivals in the IT services sector.


Earnings and revenue performance

IBM posted fourth-quarter revenue of $19.69 billion, ahead of the Street consensus of $19.22 billion. On a comparative basis, total revenue from continuing operations rose 9% in constant currency and 12% in nominal terms. Within the business mix, Software revenue increased 10.7% in constant currency, while Infrastructure revenue expanded by 16.6% - both figures were above analyst expectations.

The company reported earnings per share from continuing operations of $4.52, comfortably above the Street estimate of $4.30. Non-GAAP gross margin was 61.8%, slightly higher than the consensus of 61.3%.

Free cash flow for the quarter reached $7.55 billion, materially exceeding the Street projection of $6.48 billion and up from $6.16 billion in the comparable period a year earlier.


Generative AI backlog and consulting

IBM highlighted momentum in its Generative AI backlog, which reached $12.5 billion during the quarter, an increase of approximately $3.0 billion quarter-over-quarter. The company’s Consulting revenue grew 1.0% in constant currency, a pace that fell short of analyst expectations amid what Goldman Sachs described as a "challenging macro backdrop."


Outlook and cash-flow guidance for 2026

For fiscal 2026, IBM guided to constant currency revenue growth of more than 5% and noted a positive foreign exchange impact of 0.5%. Management also projected a roughly $1 billion increase in free cash flow, to about $15.7 billion. That free cash flow outlook exceeds Goldman Sachs’ internal estimate of $15.2 billion and the Street consensus of $15.0 billion.


Valuation and income profile

InvestingPro identifies IBM as a prominent participant in the IT Services industry, and the stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.2 - a level that the InvestingPro assessment suggests may be elevated relative to near-term earnings growth expectations. IBM also offers a dividend yield of 2.28% and has paid dividends for 55 consecutive years, a feature that continues to attract income-focused investors.


Analyst reactions and competitor views

The quarter drew varied responses from Wall Street. Evercore ISI reiterated an Underperform rating and a $330 price target, projecting revenue of $19.2 billion and earnings per share of $4.29, with expectations that the Infrastructure segment and Consulting improvements will drive results. By contrast, RBC Capital kept an Outperform rating, expecting solid year-end results with potential upside to revenue and free cash flow. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating, pointing to improved software execution and growth prospects. Bank of America Securities raised its price target from $315 to $335 and maintained a Buy rating, while noting an expectation of a modest 2026 following a strong 2025 and highlighting possible profit-margin implications related to workforce changes.


Commercial partnerships and product initiatives

Separately, IBM extended its long-standing technology partnership with the Wimbledon tennis tournament, continuing their collaboration on AI-powered digital experiences.


Bottom line

Goldman Sachs’ reaffirmation of a Buy rating and a $350 price target follows a quarter in which IBM beat revenue, earnings and cash-flow estimates, extended its Generative AI backlog materially and raised its multi-year free cash flow target. The company’s valuation metrics and consulting revenue softness are noted as areas to watch, while the dividend track record and sizable cash-flow guidance remain central to investment rationale.

Risks

  • Consulting revenue grew just 1.0% in constant currency and missed analyst expectations amid a challenging macro backdrop - a headwind for consulting and professional services markets.
  • The stock trades at a P/E of 35.2, which InvestingPro notes may appear high relative to near-term earnings growth expectations - a valuation risk for equity investors.
  • Potential profit-margin impacts tied to workforce changes flagged by BofA could affect margins in 2026, posing execution risk for operating profitability.

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