Goldman Sachs has increased its price objective for Antero Midstream Partners LP to $18.00 from $17.50 and kept a Neutral recommendation as the midstream operator prepares to report fourth-quarter 2025 results. The stock was trading at $18.75, under its 52-week high of $19.82, and analysis indicates the shares appear slightly undervalued based on Fair Value estimates.
On the near-term performance outlook, Goldman projects fourth-quarter 2025 EBITDA of $281 million, in line with consensus and essentially unchanged from the bank's prior $280 million estimate. The bank expects gathering and water volumes to be flat for the period, as well as stability in joint venture distributions. For context, Antero Midstream's last twelve months EBITDA is $927.84 million and the company reports a gross profit margin of 81.29%.
Share repurchases are part of the company's capital-return plans, with Goldman estimating $32 million of buybacks in the fourth quarter. However, Goldman notes repurchase activity could ease in early 2026 while leverage temporarily exceeds the company's 3.0x long-term target during the pending acquisition of HG Midstream. Separately, the company has a record of sustained shareholder distributions, having paid dividends for 10 consecutive years. The current yield stands at 4.8% with quarterly payments of $0.90 per share.
Looking to the full year, Goldman Sachs forecasts 2026 EBITDA of $1,156 million, which is below consensus of $1,196 million. The bank emphasizes that its 2026 projection excludes the financial impacts from both the pending HG Midstream acquisition and the sale of Utica assets, transactions expected to close in the second and first quarters of 2026, respectively. Market valuation metrics noted in the outlook include a P/E ratio of 19.1 and a PEG ratio of 0.9.
Investors and analysts will focus on several items when the company reports earnings. Key questions include guidance from Antero Resources amid recent volatility in natural gas and natural gas liquids prices; Antero Midstream's expectations for growth across gathering, compression and water volumes; how buyback programs will be executed while leverage is temporarily elevated; and the potential for increased in-basin demand.
Antero Midstream is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11, 2026, which is 16 days away. Ahead of the release, those seeking deeper company-level analysis have access to expanded research offerings that aggregate valuation and operational data into comprehensive reports.
Several financing and transaction developments are moving in parallel with the operational story. Antero Midstream priced an upsized private placement of $600 million of 5.75% senior unsecured notes due 2034, and expects to receive approximately $593 million in net proceeds from that private placement. The net proceeds, together with other financial sources, are intended to help fund the acquisition of HG Energy II Midstream Holdings, LLC.
The company has also launched a $500 million senior notes offering, with proceeds likewise planned for use on the HG Energy II acquisition. In addition, Antero Midstream entered agreements to acquire HG II Energy Midstream Holdings for $1.1 billion while divesting its Ohio Utica Shale assets for $400 million.
Related transactional activity includes a planned purchase of Antero's Ohio assets by null Natural Resources for $1.2 billion, with Northern Oil and Gas taking a 49% interest in that deal. On the upstream side, Antero Resources Corporation has agreed to acquire HG Energy II's upstream assets for $2.8 billion. The transactions are presented as strategic moves to reshape asset ownership and net production exposure within the Marcellus and Utica regions.
The combination of steady operating expectations, near-term financing to support M&A, and a temporary elevation in leverage form the central themes investors will weigh as the company reports results and proceeds with integration and divestiture plans.