Goldman Sachs has lifted its price target for HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA) to $558.00 while retaining a Buy rating, marking an upward revision that nonetheless sits below the analyst high target of $590, according to InvestingPro data. HCA shares are trading close to their 52-week high and have returned roughly 55% over the last year.
The brokerage's adjustment follows HCA's fourth-quarter 2025 performance in which reported EBITDA modestly exceeded expectations by about 1.7%, and the company issued 2026 EBITDA guidance that came in above Street consensus. Management also reiterated an expected volume growth range of 2-3% for 2026, in line with its long-term targets despite lingering uncertainty tied to health insurance exchange market dynamics. Over the trailing twelve months, HCA's EBITDA aggregated to $15.49 billion, reflecting the company’s earnings power.
HCA expects expense trends to be broadly similar through 2026 and is guiding adjusted EBITDA margins to stay above 20%. The company's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin landed at 21.1% - approximately 60 basis points higher than consensus estimates - driven largely by expense controls across labor and other operating cost lines.
Looking to 2026, management is targeting $400 million of cost savings from resiliency initiatives. Those savings are intended to partially offset a set of projected headwinds, which the company estimates at $600 million to $900 million tied to anticipated health insurance exchange reforms, plus an expected $250 million to $450 million reduction in benefits from supplemental payment programs. HCA's management emphasized that the company’s robust margins should produce significant operating cash flow, supporting an increase in capital expenditures to a range of $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion while simultaneously initiating a new $10 billion share repurchase program in 2026.
In earnings detail, HCA reported fourth-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share of $8.01, above the forecast of $7.45. Revenue for the period was $19.51 billion, slightly below the anticipated $19.67 billion. Despite the revenue shortfall, the stronger EPS and the company’s capital allocation commitments contributed to an uplift in the stock price following the release.
Separately, BofA Securities raised its HCA price target from $485 to $540 but kept a Neutral rating. That adjustment reflects BofA’s reading of HCA’s 2026 guidance, which the bank models as growth between 0.6% and 6.5%. BofA also highlighted a specific potential upside: the inclusion of Supplemental Directed Payment programs in Florida, which could add more than $500 million to HCA’s financials if realized.
Taken together, the analyst target moves and HCA's reported results provide investors with updated perspectives on near-term earnings power, the company’s ability to manage expenses, and how planned capital deployment may interact with headwinds from policy and program changes.
Note: This article reports on analyst target revisions, company results and guidance as disclosed in the referenced reporting. It does not add any additional projections or claims beyond those presented by the company and the cited analysts.