Goldman Sachs has revised its price target for Kinetik Holdings Inc (NYSE:KNTK) upward to $42.00 from $40.00 and left its recommendation at Buy as investors look toward the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release. The stock is trading near $39.78 and currently presents an elevated dividend yield of 8.14%, with the company having lifted its payout for four consecutive years.
In updating its financial model, Goldman now estimates Kinetik’s fourth-quarter 2025 EBITDA at $238 million, down from the firm’s earlier forecast of $243 million and roughly 4% below the consensus figure of $247 million. Goldman attributes this downward revision primarily to price and volume effects in the Waha region and notes the updated EBITDA sits at the lower end of Kinetik’s own guidance range.
The bank identifies a full quarter of contributions from the Kings Landing I asset as the single largest sequential source of EBITDA growth, but that uplift is partially offset by reduced volumes in Southern Delaware driven by ongoing curtailments and production delays.
Looking further out, Goldman has cut its 2026 EBITDA projection to $1,032 million from a prior $1,114 million estimate - a 7% reduction that the firm ties to a weaker exit rate at the end of 2025. That 2026 forecast stands about 4% below the consensus estimate of $1,074 million. On a trailing basis, Kinetik’s last twelve months EBITDA is reported at $522.03 million with revenue growth of 18.92%. The company’s valuation metrics show a high EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.38 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 94.96.
Goldman’s note says that resolving Waha-related issues is central to shifting investor attention toward several potential growth levers: expanding the Northern Delaware footprint, executing self-help measures to lower costs, enhancing capital allocation flexibility, and clarifying the company’s longer-term strategic direction. The firm frames these items as the next set of catalysts once the Waha dynamics normalize.
Activity among other research firms has been notable following Kinetik’s third-quarter results. Raymond James upgraded the company’s rating to Outperform and set a price target of $46, while Jefferies began coverage with a Buy rating, citing growth opportunities it sees as undervalued amid macroeconomic headwinds. RBC Capital Group trimmed its price target from $52 to $46 but retained an Outperform rating after the recent quarter missed expectations.
Other prior adjustments from brokers are reflected in Goldman’s own coverage history and peer notes. At one point Goldman reduced its price target from $46 to $40 while maintaining a Buy recommendation, pointing to commodity margin pressures and a delay in the Kings Landing start-up as contributors to the softer quarter. Wolfe Research also lowered its target to $42, citing operational challenges and weaker commodity prices, though it continued to rate the stock Outperform.
These varied analyst moves underscore divergent perspectives on how the company will navigate near-term operational issues and commodity market conditions while pursuing growth opportunities across its asset base.
Investors evaluating Kinetik will confront a mix of near-term volatility and potential longer-term upside drivers. The immediate picture includes sensitivity to regional price and volume shifts - specifically in Waha and Southern Delaware - and the timing of full contributions from Kings Landing I. At the same time, the company’s high dividend yield and recent payout increases remain distinguishing features for income-focused shareholders.
As the company approaches its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings announcement, market participants will likely weigh updated operational detail and management commentary against the range of analyst forecasts and the company’s valuation multiples.