Freedom Capital Markets has maintained its Sell recommendation and preserved a $123.00 price target on ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) in the wake of the oil major's recent financial disclosures. At the time cited by the research firm, ExxonMobil's shares were trading at $143.38, a level the firm described as well above its target and close to the stock's reported 52-week high of $142.34.
In its commentary, Freedom Capital Markets acknowledged operational progress at ExxonMobil, pointing to production growth in Guyana and the U.S. Permian Basin that helped the company set operational records. Despite those operational gains, the research firm highlighted that ExxonMobil's results for the most recent period were lower than a year earlier, though marginally ahead of consensus estimates.
Over the past twelve months, the company reported revenue of $323.9 billion, a decline of 4.52% year-over-year. Freedom Capital Markets emphasized that, while the Energy Products segment saw an eight-fold year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings to $2.9 billion - an improvement the firm attributed to declining oil prices - consolidated adjusted net earnings have declined for the third consecutive year.
The research note additionally referenced technical indicators from InvestingPro, noting the stock's relative strength index (RSI) signals overbought conditions, which the firm said aligns with its cautious stance. Looking ahead, Freedom Capital Markets projects that the negative trends it has identified will continue into 2026, a view that underpins its assessment that the shares trade above what it considers fair value and supports the unchanged $123 price target and Sell recommendation on the largest U.S. oil and gas company by market capitalization.
Market responses to ExxonMobil's most recent quarterly results were mixed. The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.71, beating an analyst forecast of $1.68. Revenue for the quarter reached $82.31 billion versus projected revenue of $81.04 billion, results that some analysts interpreted as evidence of solid operational execution and cash flow generation.
Following those quarterly figures, several notable analyst moves were recorded. UBS raised its price target on ExxonMobil from $145 to $171 while maintaining a Buy rating. JPMorgan lifted its price target to $140, citing the company's strong operational performance and better-than-expected cash flow from operations. Conversely, BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underperform and set a $125 price target, pointing to valuation concerns after a year of strong performance and a 16% rise since the start of 2026.
These shifts illustrate the range of analyst sentiment toward ExxonMobil: some firms are upgrading targets and keeping positive ratings on the basis of recent results, while others are trimming opinions or maintaining bearish valuation views. Freedom Capital Markets' unchanged Sell stance and $123 target contrast with the higher targets from some peers, highlighting differing assessments of the company's near-term outlook and valuation.
Summary
Freedom Capital Markets continues to rate ExxonMobil as a Sell with a $123 price target despite operational records and a quarterly beat, citing declining consolidated earnings, lower twelve-month revenue, and an overbought technical reading. Other analysts have issued both higher and lower targets, producing mixed market sentiment.
Key points
- Freedom Capital Markets reiterated a Sell rating and $123.00 price target on ExxonMobil while the stock traded at $143.38, near its reported 52-week high of $142.34.
- Operational records were achieved through production growth in Guyana and the U.S. Permian Basin, but consolidated adjusted net earnings fell for a third consecutive year and twelve-month revenue declined 4.52% to $323.9 billion.
- Quarterly results showed EPS of $1.71 and revenue of $82.31 billion, beating analyst forecasts; analyst reactions were mixed, with UBS and JPMorgan raising targets and BNP Paribas Exane downgrading the stock.
Risks and uncertainties
- Valuation risk - Freedom Capital Markets considers the shares to be trading above fair value, a view shared by at least one other analyst who downgraded the stock due to stretched valuation. This impacts equity investors and financial markets tracking energy companies.
- Continuing earnings decline - Consolidated adjusted net earnings have fallen for three consecutive years, a trend the research firm expects to persist into 2026, affecting investor confidence and capital allocation in the oil and gas sector.
- Market technicals - The stock's RSI reading was flagged as overbought by InvestingPro, which may increase near-term volatility in the oil and gas equities space.
Tags: Oil, Energy, XOM, Markets, Analysts