Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

Freedom Capital Markets lifts Tesla target to $440, keeps Hold as Robotaxi potential offsets EV demand concerns

Firm cites slightly stronger Q4 2025 results and Robotaxi program progress while warning EV demand headwinds may persist into 2026

By Sofia Navarro TSLA
Freedom Capital Markets lifts Tesla target to $440, keeps Hold as Robotaxi potential offsets EV demand concerns
TSLA

Freedom Capital Markets raised its price target on Tesla to $440 from $406 while holding a neutral stance on the stock. The firm pointed to fourth-quarter 2025 results that modestly exceeded consensus and flagged Robotaxi progress as a potential offset to ongoing EV demand weaknesses into 2026. Analysts remain divided on valuation and near-term outlook.

Key Points

  • Freedom Capital Markets raised its Tesla price target to $440 from $406 while keeping a Hold rating.
  • Tesla’s Q4 2025 results slightly beat consensus; trailing 12-month revenue was $94.8 billion and gross profit margin was 18.03%.
  • Analyst community is mixed - price targets range from $508 to $519 among firms that raised or maintained bullish views; some firms reiterated Hold.
  • Sectors impacted: automotive OEMs, autonomous vehicle technology, and energy storage markets.

Freedom Capital Markets on Thursday raised its 12-month price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $440.00 from $406.00, while leaving its rating on the electric vehicle maker at Hold. Tesla was trading at $424.32 at the time of the report and is noted to carry an earnings multiple of 291.8x, with the share price sitting well above a reported Fair Value.

The brokerage attributed the target bump to Tesla’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which it described as slightly ahead of consensus expectations. Over the trailing twelve months the company recorded $94.8 billion in revenue. At the same time, Freedom Capital Markets highlighted a relatively weak gross profit margin of 18.03 percent. The firm nevertheless emphasized Tesla’s solid balance-sheet position, noting the company holds more cash than debt.

Despite the modestly better-than-expected quarter, the research house warned that demand difficulties in the electric vehicle market are expected to continue into 2026. It characterized near-term auto market trends as a headwind for Tesla’s core vehicle business.

Offsetting those concerns, Freedom Capital Markets pointed to advancing work on Tesla’s Robotaxi program. The firm indicated the program could start to show clearer traction in 2026 as the fleet ramps up quickly, potentially becoming an increasingly important factor in Tesla’s outlook.


Other brokerages have also reacted to Tesla’s fourth-quarter performance with divergent views. Stifel maintained a Buy rating with a $508 price target. Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an Overweight view and a $510 target, citing strong deployment in the Energy Generation & Storage segment. TD Cowen raised its target to $519 and highlighted robust margin performance and updates on RoboTaxi initiatives. Piper Sandler kept an Overweight rating, pointing to Tesla’s strategic pivot toward autonomous vehicles and robotics and noting the discontinuation of the Model S and Model X to prioritize humanoid robot production. Needham reiterated a Hold rating, acknowledging disciplined execution in the automotive business and progress in artificial intelligence initiatives.

Quarterly metrics drew broad attention: revenue, gross profit, and operating income all beat projections, and automotive margins excluding regulatory credits outperformed expectations despite a $500 million tariff impact in the fourth quarter of 2024. These mixed signals have produced a range of price targets and ratings across the analyst community while leaving some firms cautious and others more bullish.

Freedom Capital Markets’ maintained Hold rating together with an increased price target reflects that cautious balance - recognizing both the company’s solid financial footing and margin strengths, and the lingering demand uncertainties for electric vehicles. The firm’s emphasis on Robotaxi progress as a potential offset signals where it sees material upside if execution accelerates in 2026.

Risks

  • Persistent weak demand for electric vehicles, which Freedom Capital Markets expects to continue into 2026 - this primarily affects the automotive sector and related supply chains.
  • Margin pressure from lower gross profit could constrain cash generation despite a stronger balance sheet - impacts auto manufacturing and corporate finance metrics.
  • Tariff-related costs; a $500 million tariff impact in Q4 2024 was cited as affecting margins, demonstrating geopolitical and trade risk to manufacturing and supply chains.

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