Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

Evercore Maintains Outperform on Starbucks, Sets $105 Target as Earnings Show Mixed Signals

Analyst reiteration follows a quarter of softer margins and EPS but solid top-line and international strength, with China and licensing activity notable drivers

By Maya Rios SBUX
Evercore Maintains Outperform on Starbucks, Sets $105 Target as Earnings Show Mixed Signals
SBUX

Evercore ISI has reiterated an Outperform rating on Starbucks with a $105.00 price target after the company released first-quarter results that combined an earnings decline and margin compression with stronger-than-expected same-store sales, particularly internationally and in China. The stock traded near $98.54, carries a high P/E ratio, and drew a positive market reaction after a revenue beat.

Key Points

  • Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating on Starbucks with a $105.00 price target while the stock traded near $98.54 and carries a P/E of 61.8.
  • Q1 EPS was $0.56 (an 18% year-over-year decline) - beating Evercore’s estimate of $0.51 but reported as slightly below consensus levels ($0.58 and, in some reports, $0.59), with consolidated operating margin at 10.1%, down 180 basis points year-over-year.
  • Same-store sales outperformed expectations both in the Americas (+4%) and internationally (+5%), with China up 7%; Starbucks reported trailing-12-month revenue of $37.18 billion and a market capitalization of $112.89 billion.

Evercore ISI reaffirmed an Outperform rating and left its price target at $105.00 for Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) after the company reported first-quarter results. The shares were trading around $98.54, close to what InvestingPro lists as fair value, and the company is trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 61.8.

Earnings and margins

Starbucks reported first-quarter earnings per share of $0.56, an 18% decline from the prior-year period. That result topped Evercore’s internal estimate of $0.51 but was slightly below the consensus expectation of $0.58. In other reporting within the quarter, the company’s EPS was also described as missing analysts’ expectations of $0.59, a 5.08% shortfall. Consolidated operating margin for the quarter stood at 10.1%, down 180 basis points year-over-year.

On a trailing-12-month basis, diluted EPS was $1.63. Street estimates included in the reporting showed analysts projecting EPS of $2.33 for fiscal 2026.

Sales performance in the Americas

Americas same-store sales increased 4%, outpacing both Evercore’s and consensus views of 2%. Management attributed that growth to a 3% increase in transactions and a 1% increase in average ticket. The company also noted that both rewards and non-rewards member activity rose for the first time in eight quarters, supporting the uplift in transactions.

InvestingPro-sourced figures cited in the coverage put Starbucks’ overall revenue growth at 2.79% over the last twelve months, and the company’s market capitalization at $112.89 billion.

International strength and China recovery

International operations outperformed expectations, with same-store sales up 5% versus an estimated 2.5%. China was highlighted for stronger momentum, posting 7% same-store sales growth driven by a 5% increase in transactions and a 2% ticket improvement. The international gains contributed to reported total revenue of $37.18 billion on a trailing-12-month basis.

Pilot programs, licensing and M&A

Starbucks said its "Green Apron" pilot stores are outpacing the broader system on same-store sales by two percentage points, with that advantage attributed entirely to higher transaction volumes. The company also expects a pending transaction with Boyu to close this spring - once completed, the deal will convert roughly 8,000 company-operated locations into licensed stores within the International segment.

Dividend and industry placement

Operating as a significant participant in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry, Starbucks has maintained dividend payments for 17 consecutive years and currently yields 2.59%.

Market reaction and revenue results

Alongside the EPS figures, Starbucks reported quarterly revenue of $9.9 billion, which exceeded an anticipated $9.62 billion. The revenue beat appeared to influence investor sentiment, with the stock rising roughly 8% in pre-market trading as reported.

Analyst stance and valuation considerations

Evercore’s continued Outperform rating and $105 price target follow the mixed results: an EPS decline and margin compression on one hand, and stronger-than-expected same-store sales, international recovery and a revenue beat on the other. The company’s elevated P/E ratio of 61.8 and proximity of the share price to InvestingPro Fair Value were noted in the coverage alongside carry-through metrics such as trailing EPS and fiscal 2026 forecasts.


The quarter presents a combination of operational strengths in sales and expansion initiatives and challenges in profitability metrics, leaving investors and analysts to weigh revenue momentum and international gains against a compressed operating margin and a high valuation multiple.

Risks

  • Earnings and margin pressure - reported EPS declined 18% year-over-year and consolidated operating margin contracted by 180 basis points, indicating potential near-term profitability headwinds for the consumer discretionary and Restaurants sectors.
  • Valuation risk - the company is trading at a high P/E ratio of 61.8, which could increase downside sensitivity in equity markets if growth expectations are not met.
  • Transaction and closing uncertainty - the planned Boyu acquisition is expected to close this spring and will convert roughly 8,000 stores to licensed locations; any delays or changes could affect International segment plans and investor expectations.

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