Evercore ISI reiterated an Underperform rating on IBM (NYSE:IBM) and left its price target at $330 ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which is due on Wednesday, January 28. The research firm expects IBM’s fourth-quarter results to be in line with or slightly above consensus expectations of $19.2 billion in revenue and $4.29 in earnings per share.
According to Evercore ISI, the expected near-consensus performance will be underpinned by continued strength in the Infrastructure segment, attributed to an ongoing mainframe cycle, together with improvements in the Consulting business. These segment-level trends are cited as the primary operational drivers for the quarter.
Evercore also highlighted IBM’s ongoing cost reduction program, which the firm says should deliver roughly $4.5 billion in gross run-rate savings by the end of 2025. Those savings are expected to support expansion of pre-tax income margins and could provide upside to reported earnings for the fourth quarter.
The research house said it anticipates that IBM will include formal guidance for 2026 when it reports results. Evercore expects that initial guidance will point to growth at the lower end of IBM’s mid-single-digit target range, include at least one percentage point of pre-tax income margin expansion, and indicate approximately $15 billion in free cash flow for 2026. Evercore identified that 2026 guidance will be a central focus for investor reaction to the quarter.
Investors will be watching a number of specific updates and metrics that Evercore singled out as important. These include:
- AI bookings and AI-related revenue trajectory;
- Details on the integration of Confluent into IBM’s software and services stack;
- Progress on quantum computing initiatives;
- Software growth expectations for 2026; and
- Consulting signings and further specifics on the planned cost savings.
In addition to Evercore’s reiterated stance, the company has attracted a number of other analyst views recently. Stifel retained a Buy rating with a $325 price target, citing better software execution and growth prospects. Bank of America raised its price target to $335 while keeping a Buy rating and signaled expectations for a relatively more modest 2026 after a stronger 2025. Jefferies lifted its rating from Hold to Buy and increased its price target to $360, pointing to optimism about IBM’s software growth outlook and strategic acquisitions.
Separately, IBM extended its long-running technology partnership with the Wimbledon tennis tournament, a collaboration that began in 1995 and now includes AI-powered digital experiences, according to the company’s announcement. That extension was highlighted alongside the analyst updates as another recent development reflecting IBM’s strategic emphasis.
With the earnings report imminent, Evercore’s positioning underscores the importance of both near-term execution in Infrastructure and Consulting and the details management provides on cost savings and 2026 targets. Market reaction is likely to hinge on whether reported results and the company’s guidance meet the expectations described above.
Note: This article presents analyst expectations and recent analyst actions regarding IBM ahead of its scheduled fourth-quarter earnings release and summarizes the items investors are expected to focus on during the report.