Evercore ISI has reiterated an Outperform rating on ASML Holding NV with a price target of EUR 1,300 as the company approaches its upcoming earnings release on January 28. The firm highlighted both the positive fundamental backdrop and market positioning for the semiconductor equipment leader, while warning investors to be mindful of the stock's recent advance.
Evercore noted that ASML has outpaced the broader market so far this year, rising 28% year-to-date compared with a 2% gain for the S&P 500. That strong relative performance underpins the firm's caution on the immediate risk/reward leading into results, particularly given survey data showing most investors are already overweight semiconductor capital equipment names overall and ASML specifically.
Despite the caution on near-term positioning, Evercore described the underlying fundamentals as constructive. The firm pointed to Street models that forecast product revenues in 2026 to rise about 4% year-over-year, a projection Evercore considers conservative given ASML's recent performance. Over the last twelve months, ASML recorded 22.77% revenue growth, a pace the firm sees as supportive of expectations for continued demand.
Key structural exposures support the outlook, according to Evercore. ASML's business is estimated to have roughly 28% exposure to the DRAM market, positioning the company to benefit if memory spending accelerates. The firm also cited potential upside from faster investment in leading-edge foundry and logic processes.
Order intake dynamics remain an important near-term variable. Street consensus for the December quarter calls for order intake of approximately €6.9 billion, which would represent a 29% quarter-over-quarter increase but still sit below the €8-9 billion peak order levels reached in 2021 and 2022.
On shareholder returns and payout history, Evercore observed that ASML has paid dividends for 19 consecutive years and delivered 11.67% dividend growth in the past year.
Valuation is another consideration. ASML currently trades at about 43 times earnings, a multiple that represents an 89% premium to the S&P 500. Evercore suggests that this premium implies much of the near-term positive fundamental outlook may already be reflected in the stock price.
Other analysts remain broadly positive. TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo projects ASML revenue of €38-40 billion in 2026 and €45-47 billion in 2027, figures that would exceed the market consensus of €34-36 billion and €41-43 billion for those years. Bernstein has reiterated an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $1,642, citing potential in ASML's Deep Ultraviolet lithography segment and import data that point to possible December-quarter revenue of EUR 9.7 billion versus a consensus of EUR 9.5 billion. BofA Securities has maintained a Buy rating with a $1,672 price target, noting limited competitive risk from China. Bernstein additionally reiterated its Outperform stance, influenced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's increased capital expenditure plans, which could have favorable implications for ASML.
Taken together, these analyst actions reflect continued positive sentiment about ASML's market position and future revenue potential, even as valuation and investor positioning temper some near-term upside expectations ahead of the company's imminent earnings report.
Contextual note - The information above describes analyst ratings, revenue and order projections, valuation metrics, exposure to memory and logic markets, dividend history, and recently stated price targets as reported by the firms cited. Investors should consider these stated views alongside upcoming company results.