Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its Buy rating on Eli Lilly and left its price target at $1,200.00 after the drugmaker released fiscal year 2026 guidance that topped consensus expectations. The guidance calls for FY26 revenue in a range of $80-$83 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share between $33.50 and $35.00, figures that exceed analyst consensus estimates cited at roughly $78 billion in revenue and $33.09 in EPS.
The bank highlighted details embedded in Lilly's guidance about pricing and volume. Management's FY26 outlook assumes a low-to-mid teens price decline, which contrasts with a -6% price decline in FY25. Given that pricing assumption, Lilly's guidance implies approximately 42% year-over-year volume growth for 2026, with Deutsche Bank noting particular upside potential in markets outside the United States.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Lilly reported revenue of about $19.3 billion, beating Street expectations of $18 billion and exceeding an alternate forecast cited at $17.87 billion. The company posted non-GAAP EPS of $7.54 for the quarter, above the forecast of $7.20. Management attributed the outperformance primarily to strong demand for its diabetes and obesity therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Management also reiterated product and coverage timelines that bear on future revenue trajectories. Lilly confirmed the U.S. launch of Orforg is on track for the second quarter of 2026. The company also noted that Medicare's obesity coverage is slated to roll out on July 1, 2027, and that Lilly has submitted a European filing for Orforg in Type 2 diabetes.
Deutsche Bank's continued Buy rating follows these forward-looking disclosures and the quarterly beat, which together present a clearer picture of Lilly's expected 2026 performance. The guidance numbers point to a combination of significant volume expansion and geographic growth opportunities, while the quarterly results underline the current strength of Lilly's key product franchises.
Market context and implications
Lilly's FY26 guidance and fourth-quarter metrics directly affect the healthcare and broader equity markets by updating expectations for the company's growth trajectory and profitability. The guidance implies substantial volume-led expansion and highlights the central role of diabetes and obesity treatments in driving near-term revenue.
What management confirmed
- FY26 revenue guidance: $80-$83 billion
- FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance: $33.50-$35.00 per share
- Q4 2025 revenue: approximately $19.3 billion
- Q4 2025 EPS: $7.54
- U.S. Orforg launch: scheduled for Q2 2026
- Medicare obesity coverage rollout: July 1, 2027
- Orforg European filing: submitted for Type 2 diabetes