Deutsche Bank has increased its price target on ASML Holding NV to EUR1,500 from EUR1,300 and left its Buy rating unchanged, pointing to substantial order momentum reported in the company's fourth quarter. ASML is trading at $1,422.92 and has outperformed over the past year, with shares up more than 101 percent and a P/E ratio of 50.29, according to InvestingPro data.
The bank's decision to lift the target follows ASML's announcement of EUR13.2 billion in fourth-quarter bookings, a figure that notably exceeded the consensus estimate of EUR6.9 billion. InvestingPro assigns ASML an overall Financial Health assessment of "GREAT," a measure Deutsche Bank referenced in considering the company's financial resilience.
Deutsche Bank observed that despite a 32 percent year-to-date increase in ASML's share price, the immediate market reaction to the strong bookings was muted. The bank interprets the large bookings tally as a meaningful catalyst for profit upgrades, particularly in 2027, and indicated it increases the likelihood that ASML could surpass the upper bound of its EUR44-60 billion sales range for 2030.
According to Deutsche Bank, the principal element driving the upside is DRAM EUV spending tied to rapid and sizable high-bandwidth memory (HBM) greenfield expansions. The bank links these expansions to strong demand stemming from AI infrastructure spending, suggesting the order flow is concentrated around capacity additions supporting memory and AI workloads.
ASML's broader quarterly disclosure reinforced the bookings strength. The company provided revenue guidance for calendar year 2026 that projects 12 percent year-over-year growth. Separately, ASML reported record orders with an order intake of e13.1 billion, which the company said represented a 144 percent increase from the prior quarter.
Market analysts have reacted to the wave of orders and the updated guidance with a series of rating and price-target moves. Wolfe Research retained an Outperform rating and raised its price target to EUR1,450. Barclays upgraded ASML to Overweight and set a price target of EUR1,500. Jefferies increased its price target to EUR1,260 while noting that a substantial portion of the orders are scheduled for 2027. TD Cowen raised its target to EUR1,500, citing the company's solid results and guidance. Evercore ISI kept an Outperform rating with a price target of EUR1,300 following the record orders and a constructive outlook for 2026.
The constellation of analyst actions underscores an industry response focused on elevated capital spending in segments of memory and AI infrastructure that rely on extreme ultraviolet lithography tools. While the timing of order delivery is an important element for model updates - with many orders slated for 2027 - analysts have adjusted expectations across near- and medium-term forecasts to reflect the outsized intake.
Summary
Deutsche Bank raised its ASML price target to EUR1,500 after the company reported EUR13.2 billion in fourth-quarter bookings, far above consensus. The bookings support profit upgrades, especially for 2027, and increase the prospect that ASML could surpass its 2030 sales range. Several other brokers also adjusted ratings and price targets following the record order intake.
Key points
- Deutsche Bank raises price target to EUR1,500 from EUR1,300 while keeping a Buy rating.
- ASML reported EUR13.2 billion in Q4 bookings versus consensus of EUR6.9 billion; order intake also reported at e13.1 billion, up 144 percent from the prior quarter.
- Analyst moves include raised targets and upgrades from Wolfe Research, Barclays, Jefferies, TD Cowen, and Evercore ISI, reflecting demand tied to DRAM EUV spending and AI infrastructure.
Risks and uncertainties
- Timing of fulfillment - many orders are scheduled for 2027, which could affect the pace of revenue and profit recognition and impact supply-chain and manufacturing planning in the semiconductor equipment sector.
- Market response - despite sizable bookings, the immediate market reaction was muted, indicating potential sensitivity to near-term delivery schedules or valuation considerations in equity markets.
- Concentration of demand - upside is driven by DRAM EUV spending for HBM greenfield expansions and AI infrastructure demand, which concentrates industry exposure in specific memory and AI-related segments of the technology supply chain.