Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

Deutsche Bank Cuts Microsoft Price Target to $575 After Q2; Maintains Buy Rating

Bank cites Azure growth slightly below market expectations and shifts in GPU allocation toward first-party AI initiatives

By Caleb Monroe MSFT
Deutsche Bank Cuts Microsoft Price Target to $575 After Q2; Maintains Buy Rating
MSFT

Deutsche Bank trimmed its target for Microsoft from $630 to $575 while keeping a Buy rating, following the company's fiscal second-quarter results. The bank described the quarter as "solid" but noted Azure cloud growth of 38% year-over-year at constant currency fell short of what it saw as market expectations. The new target still implies meaningful upside versus Microsoft’s prevailing share price.

Key Points

  • Deutsche Bank cut its Microsoft price target to $575 from $630 but kept a Buy rating, leaving sizable upside to the current share price.
  • Azure grew 38% year-over-year at constant currency in fiscal Q2, below what Deutsche Bank characterized as market expectations of over 39%; Microsoft says Azure would have grown above 40% if all incremental GPU capacity had been allocated to the service.
  • Microsoft reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $81 billion (up 17% year-over-year) and non-GAAP EPS of $4.41 (up 23% year-over-year), both beating consensus estimates by 1% and 5%, respectively - impacting the cloud and enterprise software sectors.

Deutsche Bank reduced its price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to $575.00 from $630.00 on Thursday but left its Buy recommendation unchanged. The revised target remains well above Microsoft’s current share price of $481.63, which trades at a P/E ratio of 34.12 according to InvestingPro data.

The change comes after Microsoft released fiscal second-quarter results that Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick called "solid" but which, in the bank’s view, did not meet "more lofty market expectations" for Azure cloud expansion. Azure recorded 38% year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, a pace the bank said was shy of an assumed market expectation of better than 39%.

Microsoft’s broader financials in the last twelve months include total revenue of $293.81 billion, representing 15.59% growth. For the company’s fiscal second quarter specifically, revenue was reported at $81 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase that topped consensus estimates by roughly 1%. Non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter were $4.41, a 23% increase year-over-year and about 5% ahead of analyst expectations.

Deutsche Bank noted a shift in how Microsoft is allocating GPU capacity. The bank said management is prioritizing GPUs to support AI use within first-party applications and research and development, rather than directing the incremental GPU supply primarily to Azure. That strategy aligns with the company’s pursuit of what the bank described as "higher margin, recurring software opportunities." Microsoft management indicated that Azure growth would have surpassed 40% if all incremental GPU capacity had been routed to the cloud service.

Despite the downgrade to its target price, Deutsche Bank emphasized that Azure continues to expand "well above the market" and that Microsoft is guiding Azure to maintain 37% to 38% growth in the fiscal third quarter. The bank projected that this growth rate will persist for several additional quarters based on its updated estimates.

Valuation-wise, Deutsche Bank’s $575 target implies roughly 28 times the bank’s updated calendar year 2027 non-GAAP earnings per share estimate for Microsoft, a figure the bank says reflects its revised forecasts and updated views on the company and market.

Other sell-side firms also adjusted their Microsoft price targets following the quarter. Scotiabank lowered its target to $600, citing Azure’s results that fell short of buy-side expectations for the second and third fiscal quarters. BMO Capital revised its target to $575, noting that Azure’s 38% constant-currency growth slightly missed market hopes. Goldman Sachs cut its target to $600 and attributed the move to capital expenditure concerns while keeping a Buy rating. Oppenheimer retained a $630 price target, signaling a more constructive perspective despite Azure’s deceleration, and RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating with a $640 target, acknowledging the quarter as solid but short of some market expectations.

In aggregate, the quarter delivered stronger-than-expected revenue and non-GAAP EPS on a year-over-year basis, while cloud growth metrics—specifically for Azure—prompted several analysts to reassess their near-term expectations and adjust price targets. Deutsche Bank’s action reflects a narrower view of Azure’s near-term trajectory and a recognition of Microsoft’s strategic choice to prioritize AI-related GPU allocation toward higher-margin software and internal initiatives rather than allocate all incremental capacity to Azure.

Risks

  • Azure growth came in slightly below perceived market expectations, introducing uncertainty for cloud-focused revenue projections - affecting cloud infrastructure and enterprise software markets.
  • Microsoft’s decision to prioritize GPU allocation to first-party applications and R&D rather than to Azure may limit near-term Azure capacity and growth, creating execution risk for cloud customers and investors monitoring AI infrastructure deployment.
  • Broader concerns about capital expenditures were cited by some analysts as a factor in target revisions, indicating potential risks around investment pacing and returns that could influence investor sentiment in technology capital spending.

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