Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

DA Davidson Sticks With Buy on Weyerhaeuser, Sees Upside to $31 Target

Analyst lifts near-term EBITDA view after modest Q4 beat while balance-sheet and profitability metrics remain under scrutiny

By Sofia Navarro WY
DA Davidson Sticks With Buy on Weyerhaeuser, Sees Upside to $31 Target
WY

DA Davidson has maintained a Buy rating and a $31.00 price objective for Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) after the timber and land company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that slightly surpassed the firm's expectations. The broker raised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA projection by 4% and cited a stronger start to 2026 in the Land-Based Solutions segment as a near-term tailwind. Despite the bullish stance, valuation and profitability measures remain stretched and leverage is elevated compared with historical norms.

Key Points

  • DA Davidson reaffirmed a Buy rating on Weyerhaeuser with a $31.00 price target, implying about 19.6% upside from a $25.93 share price.
  • The firm raised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA forecast by 4% after Q4 2025 results modestly exceeded expectations, citing a strong start to 2026 in the Land-Based Solutions business.
  • Valuation and balance-sheet considerations include a P/E of 57.52, gross profit margin of 14.84%, and leverage of 5.0x at year-end 2025 (projected to decline to 4.3x by end-2026).

DA Davidson has reaffirmed its Buy recommendation for Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) and kept its price target at $31.00 following the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 financial report. That target implies roughly 19.6% upside from the stock’s most recently cited price of $25.93 and sits below the sector’s loftier analyst outliers, with the consensus average recommendation remaining at 1.75 (Buy) and a reported high target of $38.

The research team said the company’s Q4 2025 results modestly outperformed their internal forecasts, prompting a raise to DA Davidson’s fiscal 2026 EBITDA estimate of 4%. The uplift was driven in part by expectations for a robust start to 2026 in Weyerhaeuser’s Land-Based Solutions business, which the firm identified as a primary factor behind an increase in first-quarter 2026 projections.

Market-data cited by the research firm highlights a mixed financial picture. Weyerhaeuser is trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 57.52, and the company’s gross profit margin stands at 14.84%, metrics that underscore valuation and profitability concerns despite the recent operational beat. DA Davidson also pointed to elevated leverage as a balance-sheet issue: year-end 2025 leverage was reported at 5.0x. The analyst group projects leverage will come down to 4.3x by the end of 2026, a forecast that does not assume any additional opportunistic divestitures that the company might pursue.

On the shareholder-return front, Weyerhaeuser continues a lengthy record of dividend payments, having paid dividends for 55 consecutive years and currently yielding 3.26%.

Weyerhaeuser’s Q4 2025 earnings results included an earnings-per-share figure of $0.10, which beat analysts’ expectations, while revenue for the quarter narrowly missed consensus forecasts. DA Davidson and market observers interpreted the EPS beat as evidence of disciplined cost management and the impact of strategic initiatives. The stock reacted positively in pre-market trading following the release, suggesting investor approval of the results despite the revenue shortfall.

The company’s recent performance and the analyst update present a mix of constructive near-term indicators and persistent structural challenges. DA Davidson’s maintained Buy rating and raised EBITDA outlook reflect confidence in operational momentum, particularly within Land-Based Solutions, while investors must weigh that view against a rich valuation, slim gross margins, and leverage that remains elevated though forecast to decline through 2026.


Bottom line: DA Davidson remains constructive on Weyerhaeuser after a modest quarterly beat and a higher EBITDA outlook for fiscal 2026, but the stock’s current multiple, narrow gross margin, and elevated leverage temper the bullish case.

Risks

  • High valuation - the company’s elevated P/E ratio of 57.52 could increase sensitivity to earnings disappointments and broader market re-ratings.
  • Profitability pressure - a narrow gross profit margin of 14.84% highlights ongoing margin constraints, particularly in wood products, which impacts the company and the broader forest products sector.
  • Leverage levels - year-end 2025 leverage of 5.0x remains elevated; while analysts project a decline to 4.3x by end-2026, that outlook excludes any assumed opportunistic divestitures and therefore carries execution risk.

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