Analyst Ratings January 30, 2026

DA Davidson Lowers AppFolio Target After Services Revenue and Guidance Disappoint

Analyst trims valuation multiple while keeping Buy as markets react to softer value-added services and conservative 2026 guidance

By Avery Klein APPF
DA Davidson Lowers AppFolio Target After Services Revenue and Guidance Disappoint
APPF

DA Davidson reduced its price target on AppFolio to $275 from $325 but left its Buy rating intact after the company’s latest quarterly report showed weaker-than-expected value-added services revenue and cautious 2026 guidance. The stock is trading near its 52-week low, and other brokerages have adjusted targets and maintained mixed outlooks amid solid top-line growth and continued profitability.

Key Points

  • DA Davidson cut its AppFolio price target to $275 from $325 but maintained a Buy rating; the new target equals 38x expected 2026 free cash flow.
  • AppFolio reported 18.88% revenue growth and $203.75 million in net income on a trailing twelve-month basis, with Q4 EPS of $1.39 beating the $1.25 estimate and revenue of $248 million slightly above the $246.56 million forecast.
  • Other brokerages adjusted targets and ratings: Piper Sandler lowered its target to $245, KeyBanc set $255 while keeping Overweight, and William Blair reiterated Outperform, reflecting mixed analyst reactions across the software and real estate tech sectors.

DA Davidson on Friday lowered its price target for AppFolio (NASDAQ: APPF) to $275.00 from $325.00 while keeping a Buy rating on the property management software provider. The research note follows the company’s most recent quarterly report, which included a shortfall in value-added services revenue and a conservative outlook for 2026 that tempered otherwise strong results.

According to InvestingPro data cited by the firm, AppFolio shares were trading at $189.76 and sit near a 52-week low of $190.24. DA Davidson said the stock dropped roughly 11% in after-hours trading after the earnings release, despite the quarter delivering strong unit growth and earnings that topped expectations.

The company reported revenue growth of 18.88% and remains profitable on a trailing twelve-month basis, with net income of $203.75 million. DA Davidson highlighted that AppFolio continues to see favorable upmarket new business trends and rising adoption of resident services and premium subscription tiers, factors that support the firm’s retained Buy view even as it trims the price target.

DA Davidson’s revised $275 price objective equates to a multiple of 38 times the company’s expected 2026 free cash flow, per the note.


Other firms also updated their models and targets after the quarter. Piper Sandler cut its price target on AppFolio to $245 from $350, pointing to the company’s 2026 revenue growth guidance of 16.7% at the midpoint as a reason for the reduction because that midpoint landed below Street expectations. KeyBanc adjusted its target to $255 from $270 and kept an Overweight rating, referencing the company’s reported 21.9% year-over-year revenue increase in the fourth quarter. William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating, calling out accelerating unit additions, stronger revenue growth and exceptional free cash flow.

AppFolio’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 results beat analyst forecasts on both earnings and sales. The company posted diluted earnings per share of $1.39 versus an expected $1.25, an 11.2% surprise. Revenue came in at $248 million, narrowly above the consensus forecast of $246.56 million.

Taken together, the analyst actions reflect a market balancing durable operational metrics - including unit growth, revenue acceleration and healthy free cash flow - against the disappointment in value-added services performance and the company’s restrained near-term revenue outlook.

Investors will likely be watching subsequent quarters for confirmation that the company’s upmarket momentum and higher-tier subscription adoption translate into the higher-margin services revenue that underpinned prior valuations. For now, analysts have adjusted price targets and reiterated varying degrees of conviction while the stock trades near its yearly lows.

Risks

  • Weaker-than-expected value-added services revenue could pressure revenue mix and future margins, affecting the software and proptech sectors.
  • Conservative 2026 guidance, including a midpoint revenue growth projection of 16.7% cited by Piper Sandler, may limit upside expectations and weigh on investor sentiment in technology and real estate software stocks.
  • Near-term market reaction—including an approximate 11% after-hours share decline reported by DA Davidson—signals heightened volatility and sensitivity to guidance and services revenue performance for AppFolio.

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