Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

DA Davidson Keeps AO Smith at Neutral, $75 Target Citing Weak Residential Demand and China Headwinds

Analyst maintains cautious stance despite solid EPS beat and potential balance-sheet optionality after Leonard Valve acquisition

By Jordan Park AOS
DA Davidson Keeps AO Smith at Neutral, $75 Target Citing Weak Residential Demand and China Headwinds
AOS

DA Davidson has reaffirmed a Neutral rating and a $75 price target on AO Smith (AOS), pointing to subdued residential demand in North America and continued weakness in China even as commercial segments and an earnings beat provide partial offsets. The firm sees limited near-term catalysts despite balance-sheet flexibility from recent acquisitions.

Key Points

  • DA Davidson reaffirmed a Neutral rating and $75 price target on AO Smith, noting limited near-term catalysts.
  • North American residential demand is weak amid a "stubborn housing environment," partially offset by stronger commercial water heater and boiler sales.
  • AO Smith reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.90 (above the $0.84 consensus) but missed revenue expectations; Stifel raised its price target to $85 while maintaining a Buy rating.

DA Davidson has reiterated a Neutral rating and a $75.00 price target on AO Smith (NYSE:AOS), the water heater and boiler manufacturer. The shares are trading near $74.30, and the company carries a market capitalization of about $10.34 billion. According to InvestingPro metrics cited in the analyst note, AO Smith appears modestly undervalued on a Fair Value basis.

The analyst highlighted that North America’s residential channel is experiencing sluggish demand amid what it termed a "stubborn housing environment." That softness in the core residential business is being partially offset by stronger performance in AO Smith’s commercial water heater and boiler businesses, but DA Davidson characterized the overall backdrop as muted.

In addition to North American headwinds, the firm pointed to ongoing challenges in China. Management has reported weak sell-through in that market, with sales declining by the high teens year-over-year. DA Davidson attributed the weakness there to an absence of stimulus measures and reduced consumer confidence, factors that have constrained demand for the company’s products in the region.

DA Davidson also noted that AO Smith is conducting a strategic evaluation of its China operations. The company recently completed the acquisition of Leonard Valve, and the analyst emphasized that the deal, along with the company’s balance-sheet position, provides optionality. Despite that flexibility, DA Davidson stated it does not currently see a near-term catalyst that would change its view on the stock, supporting the maintained Neutral rating and $75 target.

On the results front, AO Smith reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.90, topping the analyst consensus of $0.84 and representing a 7.14% upside to expectations. Revenue for the quarter came in at $912.5 million, however, below the forecast of $928.11 million. The mixed nature of the results - better-than-expected EPS but a revenue shortfall - has produced differing reactions among other brokerages.

For example, Stifel responded to the quarter by raising its price target on AO Smith from $80 to $85 while keeping a Buy rating in place. That move suggests a degree of confidence from Stifel despite the revenue miss, even as DA Davidson retains a more cautious posture given the demand dynamics and lack of immediate catalysts.

Overall, the update paints a picture of a company with pockets of strength and balance-sheet flexibility but facing tangible demand pressures in its largest end markets. Investors will likely weigh the earnings beat and acquisition-driven optionality against persistent residential softness in North America and continued weakness in China when assessing the stock.


Key metrics referenced - Current share price: $74.30; Market capitalization: $10.34 billion; DA Davidson price target: $75.00; InvestingPro financial health score: 2.83 out of 5 (labeled GOOD); Q4 2025 EPS: $0.90 vs. $0.84 consensus; Q4 2025 revenue: $912.5 million vs. $928.11 million expected.

Risks

  • Continued weakness in North American residential housing demand could pressure revenue growth in the company’s largest market - impacting industrial and consumer durables sectors.
  • Sustained soft sell-through and low consumer confidence in China, coupled with a lack of stimulus, could prolong declines in that regional business - affecting international revenues and supply-chain planning.
  • Absence of near-term catalysts as identified by DA Davidson may limit upside for the stock in the short term, increasing sensitivity to macroeconomic and sector-specific shifts.

More from Analyst Ratings

Disney Shares Slip as Analysts Question Whether Parks Overshadow Content Strategy Feb 2, 2026 Stifel trims Eagle Materials price target to $232 as housing softness weighs on wallboard results Feb 2, 2026 UBS Sticks With Buy on McDonald’s Ahead of Q4 Results, Flags 2026 Upside Feb 2, 2026 Truist Raises Caterpillar Target to $786 After Record Backlog, Analysts Follow Suit Feb 2, 2026 UBS Sticks With Buy on Yum! Brands Ahead of Q4 Results, Flags Marketing Impact at Pizza Hut Feb 2, 2026