Citizens has reaffirmed a Market Outperform rating on Acadia Pharmaceuticals and left its price target unchanged at $34.00, even after the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) issued a negative trend vote on the company’s Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for trofinetide, Acadia’s Rett syndrome therapy.
The CHMP negative trend vote followed an oral explanation by the company. Acadia said it expects a formal negative CHMP opinion to be adopted later in February and plans to seek a re-examination if the final opinion is unfavorable.
Citizens analyst Jason Butler labeled the European regulatory outcome as "disappointing" but emphasized that sales of trofinetide outside the United States represent potential upside to Acadia’s model and valuation. Citizens' $34 price target reflects a risk-adjusted, discounted cash flow valuation, indicating the firm retains confidence in Acadia’s broader commercial prospects despite the specific setback in Europe.
Company projections and product plans
Acadia has laid out sales projections and product development plans that remain central to market expectations. The company forecasts approximately $1.7 billion in combined net sales by 2028. Within that projection, Acadia attributes about $1 billion to NUPLAZID, its Parkinson’s disease psychosis treatment, and roughly $700 million to DAYBUE, the trade name referenced for the Rett syndrome therapy.
Separately, Acadia is preparing to roll out DAYBUE STIX, a powder formulation of trofinetide, in early 2026. The company describes this new formulation as dye- and preservative-free, offering an alternative option for patients.
Other analyst views
Market participants beyond Citizens have also updated their views. Canaccord Genuity reiterated a Buy rating on Acadia with a $32 price target, signaling a belief that the company’s pipeline remains undervalued at current share levels. H.C. Wainwright raised its price target to $37 and highlighted the launch of DAYBUE STIX as a meaningful improvement for patients.
Implications
The CHMP development creates a clear near-term regulatory uncertainty for Acadia in Europe, but the firm’s projections for substantial revenue from NUPLAZID and DAYBUE, combined with a planned new formulation, supply context for why analysts are maintaining or raising valuations. Acadia’s stated plan to request re-examination if the CHMP opinion is formally adopted leaves open a procedural path that could alter the regulatory outcome down the line.
For investors and market watchers, the episode underscores the dual drivers of Acadia’s valuation: near-term regulatory milestones and projected commercial performance through the end of the decade, including the potential contribution of global trofinetide sales.
Summary of the situation
- Citizens maintained a Market Outperform rating and a $34.00 price target on Acadia despite a negative CHMP trend vote on trofinetide.
- Acadia expects a formal CHMP negative opinion later in February and plans to request re-examination if the opinion is adopted.
- The company projects roughly $1.7 billion in combined net sales by 2028, with NUPLAZID contributing about $1 billion and DAYBUE about $700 million, and plans to launch DAYBUE STIX in early 2026.