Analyst Ratings January 30, 2026

Citizens Lowers SAP Rating to Market Perform After Weak Q4; Shares Retreat

Cloud backlog growth slows and revenue misses estimates despite non-IFRS EPS beat

By Caleb Monroe SAP
Citizens Lowers SAP Rating to Market Perform After Weak Q4; Shares Retreat
SAP

Citizens has cut its rating on SAP from Market Outperform to Market Perform following a set of fourth-quarter results that mixed an above-consensus non-IFRS EPS and operating profit with revenue and cloud metrics that fell short of expectations. The stock has seen significant recent volatility, trading near $200 and sliding sharply in the week after the release.

Key Points

  • Citizens downgraded SAP from Market Outperform to Market Perform following mixed fourth-quarter results.
  • SAP beat non-IFRS EPS and operating profit estimates but missed on total revenue and cloud revenue, with cloud backlog growth at a nine-quarter low of 25% in constant currency.
  • Shares have fallen sharply in recent trading, trading near $200.21, down over 13% in the past week and about 18% year-to-date versus roughly 2% gains for the Russell 3000 and S&P 500.

Citizens downgraded SAP from Market Outperform to Market Perform on Friday after the company's fourth-quarter results failed to meet several key revenue and cloud-growth expectations.

Shares of SAP are trading around $200.21 and have declined by more than 13% over the past week. The company experienced an even larger one-day move earlier in the week, with shares falling roughly 15% on Thursday, and are down about 18% year-to-date. By comparison, both the Russell 3000 and the S&P 500 have each risen by about 2% year-to-date.

On the earnings front, SAP reported fourth-quarter non-IFRS earnings per share of 1.62, beating the consensus estimate of 1.51. The company also posted operating profit of 2.83 billion, above the expected 2.75 billion. InvestingPro data shows SAP retains a Piotroski Score of 9, a figure that indicates strong financial metrics under that scoring system.

Despite those upside surprises on the bottom line and operating-profit measure, total revenue for the quarter was 9.68 billion, below the consensus outlook of 9.75 billion. Cloud revenue reached 5.61 billion, narrowly missing the anticipated 5.64 billion.

Citizens highlighted additional weakness in SAP's cloud backlog growth. The firm noted cloud backlog grew 25% in constant currency in the quarter, the slowest rate in nine quarters and slightly under the expected pace of 26%.

Separate reporting of fourth-quarter 2025 results included figures presented in dollars: earnings per share of $1.62, which was below the $1.76 analysts had expected, and quarterly revenue of $9.68 billion, missing a $11.35 billion projection. According to those reports, the company's shares were stable in pre-market trading and saw no significant immediate price change after that earnings release.


Taken together, SAP's results combined pockets of outperformance with several notable shortfalls. Citizens' downgrade reflects concern about the revenue and cloud-growth trajectory even as SAP delivered on certain profit measures. Market reaction to the mixed set of metrics has been pronounced, producing sharp near-term share-price moves.

Risks

  • Slowing cloud backlog growth - continued deceleration in cloud demand could pressure revenue and affect investor sentiment in the software and cloud services sector.
  • Revenue misses - repeated shortfalls versus consensus revenue expectations may weigh on SAP's stock performance and could increase scrutiny of sales and booking trends in enterprise software.
  • Share-price volatility - large post-earnings moves suggest elevated market sensitivity to SAPs results, posing execution and market-risk considerations for equity investors.

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