Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its price objective on Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) to $200 from $220 on Wednesday, while leaving its rating on the cybersecurity company at Neutral. The new target implies upside relative to the stock's most recent quoted price of $180.19.
Valuation and market context
InvestingPro data show Check Point trading close to a 52-week low of $173.77 and indicate the shares appear modestly undervalued when compared with Fair Value estimates. Cantor Fitzgerald pointed to a combination of software multiple contraction and concerns about hardware growth as the principal reasons for the lower target, even as the firm's broader investment view remained unchanged going into Check Point's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, scheduled for February 12.
Demand signals and subscription momentum
The research note emphasized divergent signals from the market: some channels have reported soft firewall demand, while Cantor Fitzgerald's own channel checks detected quarter-over-quarter improvement. Those latter checks suggest growing traction in Check Point's subscription offerings, which the firm said could support the company's already high gross margin - reported at 87.97% - if recurring revenue continues to scale.
Near-term outlook and macro pressures
Cantor Fitzgerald projects modest upside for Check Point's Q4 2025 results and expects fiscal 2026 guidance to come in roughly in line with market consensus, at just under 6% revenue growth. The firm also signaled a cautious stance on margins, noting potential pressure as DRAM prices rise.
In its note the research house highlighted plans by Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) and SK Hynix (KRX:000660) to increase server memory prices by as much as 70% in the first quarter. Given that DRAM comprises about 10-15% of a firewall's bill of materials, Cantor Fitzgerald suggested this cost dynamic could push some customers to explore alternatives to traditional firewalls, such as Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) architectures.
Balance sheet and valuation markers
Despite the identified risks, Check Point's reported financial ratios continue to look favorable under Cantor Fitzgerald's lens: a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.83 and a PEG ratio of 0.79. Those metrics led the firm to characterize the stock as reasonably valued in relation to its growth rate.
Company moves and peer analyst activity
Check Point has been active on the product and partnership front. The company announced a collaboration with Hendrick Motorsports aimed at strengthening cybersecurity measures, and it introduced a new offering called Exposure Management to prioritize and automate remediation of vulnerabilities, with an explicit focus on combatting AI-enabled threats.
Other sell-side analysts have remained engaged. TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating and kept a $285 price target, citing an ongoing firewall refresh cycle and uptake of certain security solutions. Truist Securities trimmed its price objective to $225 but maintained a Buy rating, pointing to Check Point's high profitability and potential platform-driven expansion. Stephens moved the stock to Overweight and raised its target to $240, noting increased confidence in the company's trajectory toward 2026.
Research tools and analysis referenced
Cantor Fitzgerald referenced InvestingPro analysis in framing its view and the company noted that multiple InvestingPro ProTips underscore Check Point's financial resilience. The firm left its near-term investment stance unchanged while flagging both upside potential from subscription momentum and downside risks tied to hardware cost inflation and shifting buyer preferences.
With Q4 2025 results on the calendar for Feb. 12, market participants will be watching for clearer signs on subscription revenue growth, margin direction, and how management plans to navigate potential DRAM-driven cost pressures that could influence product mix decisions among enterprise customers.