Cantor Fitzgerald has maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla and kept a $510.00 price target following the electric vehicle maker’s fourth-quarter report, which exceeded consensus expectations for revenue, gross margin and earnings. At the time of the note, Tesla was trading at $419.12 and carried a market capitalization of $1.39 trillion. InvestingPro Fair Value tools still regard the shares as overvalued even though 10 analysts recently revised earnings estimates higher.
Operationally, Tesla reported deliveries of 1,636,129 vehicles in fiscal year 2025, down from 1,789,226 in FY24, marking a decline for the second year in a row. In contrast, the company’s Energy Generation & Storage segment reached a record deployment of 46.7 GWh in FY25.
Management disclosed a slate of production and development milestones: Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 are on track for volume production in FY26, and production lines for the humanoid robot "Optimus" are under development with initial deliveries expected in the second half of 2027. Tesla also told investors to expect capital expenditures to climb above $20 billion in FY26 compared with roughly $8.5 billion in FY25, and said it plans to discontinue Models S and X later this year.
On the balance sheet, Tesla holds more cash than debt, with liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations, a position Cantor Fitzgerald and other analysts identified as supportive of the company’s ambitious expansion plans.
Tesla’s Robotaxi program has advanced to the point where safety monitors are being removed from some customer rides in Austin. The current Robotaxi fleet is estimated at 200 to 500 vehicles. The company is targeting entry into eight additional markets by the first half of 2026 and continues to seek regulatory approval for Full Self-Driving in China and Europe during FY26.
Cantor Fitzgerald characterized FY26 as a potentially transformational year, highlighting Tesla’s shift toward autonomy, artificial intelligence and robotics. The firm projected Energy Generation revenue of roughly $18 billion for FY26 and about $26 billion for FY27.
The fourth-quarter release prompted a wave of analyst reactions across the industry:
- TD Cowen raised its price target to $519, citing a strong margin beat and positive RoboTaxi updates as potential catalysts in autonomy and robotics.
- Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating with a $500 target, noting Tesla’s strategic pivot toward autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics, and the company’s plan to discontinue the Model S and Model X to reallocate resources.
- Needham maintained a Hold rating, commending Tesla’s disciplined execution in its core automotive business and its progress on artificial intelligence initiatives.
- Oppenheimer reiterated a Perform rating and pointed to Tesla’s investment in a vertically integrated supply chain as part of its stated Physical AI pivot.
- UBS raised its price target to $352 but kept a Sell rating, emphasizing the planned doubling of capital expenditure to $20 billion by 2026 to support AI ambitions and noting an expected $6 billion cash burn in 2026, excluding a $2 billion investment in xAI.
Together, these analyst moves underscore a market divided between optimism about long-term technology and energy growth and caution about valuation and near-term cash demands. The updates reflect Tesla’s continued focus on innovation and a material strategic shift in how it allocates capital and resources.
Summary of the situation: Tesla reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results amid a continued decline in annual vehicle deliveries, strong energy storage deployments, and a push toward volume production for multiple new product lines. The company plans substantially higher capital spending in FY26, expects to phase out two legacy models, and is advancing autonomy and robotics programs while maintaining a liquid balance sheet that exceeds short-term obligations.