Overview
Cantor Fitzgerald on Friday lowered its 12-month price target for Tenable Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:TENB) to $30.00 from $42.00 while keeping an Overweight rating on the cybersecurity company. Tenable shares were trading at $22.04 at that time, marginally above their 52-week low of $21.26, and the stock has declined by more than 50% over the last year.
Reasoning behind the revision
The research note attributes the reduced target primarily to recent contraction in software multiples and what Cantor Fitzgerald describes as limited visibility into federal spending. The firm singled out concerns about a potential government shutdown as a particular risk that could affect Tenable’s business, given the company’s exposure to federal budgets and contracts.
Continuing conviction and upside catalysts
Despite the lower price target, Cantor Fitzgerald continued to portray Tenable as a value opportunity. The firm highlighted several sources of potential upside, including ongoing adoption of the Tenable One platform, strategic mergers and acquisitions activity, and increasing demand for the company’s cloud security offerings. Cantor Fitzgerald also noted that management’s execution on AI and cloud initiatives could serve as catalysts for a re-rating of the stock over time.
The note references a valuation of 2.6x FY26E enterprise value to sales, suggesting Cantor Fitzgerald believes the market is not fully reflecting Tenable’s longer-term fundamentals and growth prospects at current prices.
Third-party valuation and recent operational performance
Supporting the view that Tenable may be undervalued, InvestingPro analysis is cited as indicating the company trades below its Fair Value. That same analysis points out that Tenable’s revenue rose 11% over the past twelve months and notes analyst expectations that the company will reach profitability this year.
Product developments
On the product front, Tenable has introduced Tenable One AI Exposure, an enhancement to its exposure management platform intended to improve AI protection, discovery and governance for enterprise customers. The feature is positioned as an effort to close the so-called "AI Exposure Gap" by providing visibility into AI usage across varied environments.
Other analyst actions and firm-level adjustments
Several other brokerages have revised their targets or ratings for Tenable in recent weeks. DA Davidson reduced its price target to $25, citing lower free cash flow estimates while still forecasting solid fourth-quarter results. Truist Securities cut its target to $27 but kept a Buy rating after Tenable’s strong third-quarter performance that exceeded guidance on revenue and other metrics. Needham trimmed its target to $28, linking the move to changing billing patterns expected through 2025. Stifel maintained a Hold rating with a $35 target, adjusting cash flow projections based on recent earnings and competitive information.
What this means market-wise
The string of analyst adjustments underscores active debate about Tenable’s near-term cash flow dynamics and the timing of any valuation recovery. Cantor Fitzgerald’s note frames the company as having meaningful upside should execution on cloud and AI initiatives proceed as planned, but it also highlights macro- and government-related risks that may weigh on performance in the short term.
Limitations and outlook
The research note and the referenced third-party analysis present contrasting signals: on one hand, a lower price target based on multiple compression and federal visibility constraints; on the other, indications of revenue growth and potential undervaluation. Where the balance ultimately falls will depend on Tenable’s operational execution, the trajectory of federal spending and broader software valuation trends.