Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target for CommVault Systems to $100 from $144 on Wednesday, while keeping a Neutral rating on the data management software vendor. The cut follows CommVault’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 release and comes amid a notable recent slide in the company’s share price.
The stock has fallen sharply over the past week, declining 25.44% and trading at $89.13, close to a 52-week low of $84.44. Cantor Fitzgerald described the quarter as "relatively strong" overall, but highlighted a shortfall in net new annualized recurring revenue (NNARR): $39 million reported versus $45 million expected.
Management subsequently adjusted its outlook, guiding the market toward a narrower NNARR expectation of $40-$45 million instead of the higher range it had previously suggested. Despite the NNARR miss, CommVault reported sustained top-line momentum, with revenue growing 21.52% and total revenue of $1.15 billion on a last-twelve-months basis.
Cantor Fitzgerald noted the company’s valuation metrics appear attractive on several counts - approximately 3x EV/C27 revenue and about 14x C27 free cash flow - but raised cautions about the potential duration effects on Term license revenue and other factors that could limit NNARR upside. The research house pointed to InvestingPro data indicating the stock is undervalued relative to its Fair Value, even as the share price sits at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 67.36.
Analysts overall still show positive opinions on CommVault, with a consensus Buy and price targets spanning $100 to $185. Cantor Fitzgerald emphasized a number of constructive operational trends: growing SaaS adoption among large customers, product expansion, and a widening SaaS-led total addressable market in cyber and data-resiliency areas. Those dynamics are supported by a robust gross profit margin of 81.44%, as per InvestingPro data, which the firm says offers additional financial insights.
While the firm sees CommVault positioned to benefit from secular drivers tied to data management, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, it signaled a desire to see more consistent outperformance before taking a more positive stance. Cantor Fitzgerald said it is waiting for "consistent beat/raise opportunities" as a condition for a more constructive rating.
CommVault’s reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results included an earnings per share of $1.17, beating the consensus expectation of $0.98, and revenue of $314 million versus forecasts of $299.05 million. The operational bright spots in profitability and revenue growth were nonetheless tempered by the NNARR figure of $39 million, which fell short of the company’s own guidance range of $40-$45 million and prompted revisions in analyst outlooks.
In response to the ARR shortfall several firms adjusted their targets. Stephens trimmed its price target from $162.00 to $135.00 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Truist Securities lowered its target from $175.00 to $155.00 and retained a Buy rating. Mizuho reduced its target from $180.00 to $140.00 and kept an Outperform stance, specifically citing the ARR miss as the reason for the reduction. These moves illustrate the mixed sentiment across the sell-side: earnings and revenue beat expectations, but ARR execution spurred caution.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s revised valuation and Neutral rating reflect a balance of durable margin and revenue growth against execution risks related to recurring revenue expansion and licensing dynamics. The market reaction - a pronounced share price decline - underscores investor sensitivity to NNARR trends even when headline profitability measures beat estimates.
Summary: Cantor Fitzgerald cut CommVault’s price target to $100 from $144 and maintained a Neutral rating after a fiscal Q3 report that combined strong revenue and margin performance with a miss on net new ARR. Management narrowed NNARR guidance to $40-$45 million. Analysts broadly remain constructive, but several lowered targets in response to the ARR shortfall.