BTIG has reaffirmed a Buy rating on NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR) and left its price target at $9,022 following the homebuilder's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, which surpassed expectations. At the time of the update, NVR shares were trading around $7,626.10, roughly in line with InvestingPro's Fair Value estimate and about 11.5% below BTIG's target.
Quarterly performance
NVR reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $121.54. That result materially exceeded BTIG's internal projection of $105.07 and the broader analyst consensus of $105.91. BTIG attributed the outperformance mainly to stronger-than-expected revenue within NVR's core homebuilding business and effective management of selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs.
The company also posted a year-over-year increase in orders of 3%, a result that contrasted sharply with BTIG's earlier forecast calling for a 9% decline. Absorption rates held up better than anticipated as well, declining only 2% year-over-year compared with BTIG's projected 15% fall. Those metrics contributed to BTIG's decision to lift its near-term earnings outlook.
Regional and operational drivers
Among NVR's operating regions, the Mid-Atlantic stood out with an 8% year-over-year rise in orders and a 7% increase in absorption, marking a recovery after lagging through the third quarter of 2025. BTIG suggested this improvement could help mitigate investor worries that federal government layoffs and shutdowns might depress housing demand in that region.
BTIG also highlighted elements of NVR's operating model - including concentrated location share and vertical cost efficiencies derived from its production facility network - as strengths supporting returns. The firm noted NVR's 100% finished-lot option land bank, which it said has helped drive leading return on equity and shareholder returns.
Balance sheet and margin context
InvestingPro data cited by analysts show NVR's balance sheet remains robust, with the company holding more cash than debt and maintaining a current ratio of 6.21. On margins, InvestingPro lists NVR's last-twelve-month gross profit margin at 22.89%.
BTIG increased its EPS estimates following the results, raising the 2026 forecast by 7% and the 2027 forecast by 4%. The firm said the revisions reflect stronger revenue assumptions that offset expectations for lower gross margins. Analysts also pointed out that ongoing share buybacks could support EPS growth.
Other analyst activity
In addition to BTIG's move, BofA Securities also revised its outlook after the quarterly release. NVR's reported EPS of $121.54 topped BofA's own forecast of $114.38 and the consensus estimate of $107.13 referenced in that firm's coverage. BofA raised its price target for NVR from $8,400 to $8,600 and maintained a Buy rating.
Forward-looking notes and market expectations
While the recent results prompted positive estimate revisions, InvestingPro tips referenced in analyst commentary indicate expectations that NVR's net income will decline in the coming year and that revenue is projected to fall by 6% in fiscal 2026. These forward-looking forecasts appear to be factored into analyst margin commentary and the updated EPS estimates.
Summary
BTIG kept a Buy rating and a $9,022 price target on NVR after a fourth-quarter beat driven by stronger homebuilding revenue and tight SG&A control. Orders and absorption rates proved more resilient than some analysts expected, while balance-sheet metrics remain strong. BofA also lifted its target following the earnings release, and BTIG raised its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates despite anticipating some margin pressure.
Key points
- NVR delivered fourth-quarter EPS of $121.54, above BTIG and consensus estimates, led by better revenue and SG&A discipline.
- Orders rose 3% year-over-year and absorption fell only 2%, outperforming BTIG's projections of a 9% order decline and a 15% absorption decline; the Mid-Atlantic region showed notable recovery.
- Analysts adjusted earnings forecasts upward for 2026 and 2027, while highlighting a strong balance sheet and ongoing share repurchases that may support EPS.
Risks and uncertainties
- Analysts flag an expected decline in net income and a projected 6% drop in revenue for FY2026, indicating potential near-term top-line pressure in the homebuilding sector.
- Lower gross margin expectations were cited by BTIG even as revenue assumptions improved, creating margin risk that could affect profitability and valuation.
- Regional demand sensitivity - including concerns about federal government layoffs and shutdowns in the Mid-Atlantic - remains an uncertainty for regional housing markets.