BTIG has adjusted its valuation for Roblox Corp. (NYSE:RBLX), lowering the firm’s price target to $141 from $174 but retaining a Buy recommendation as the online gaming platform approaches its fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for February 5.
In a research note, BTIG analyst Clark Lampen said the firm has slightly increased its forecasts for both fourth-quarter 2025 and full-year 2026, even as it highlighted what it described as "bifurcating engagement and monetization headwinds" affecting the platform. The wording reflects an outlook in which measures of time spent and concurrent activity have softened, while paying behavior and certain monetization metrics look comparatively stronger.
The firm cited declines in concurrent users (CCUs) as suggestive of weaker hours and daily active user (DAU) trends, yet said this has been offset to some degree by what it views as "relatively healthier payer and monetization trends," which supported a modest raise to its fourth-quarter 2025 bookings estimate by a few percentage points.
For 2026, BTIG lifted its bookings forecast by several hundred basis points. The note attributed part of that revision to a view that age verification will present a "more modest headwind" than previously assumed, a conclusion informed by public statements from Roblox and BTIG’s own research.
BTIG outlined the data inputs behind its revised stance, saying it examined a range of metrics including sign-up trends, CCUs, gift card activity, age verification processes and recent advertising updates. Those inputs form the foundation for its adjusted bookings and engagement assumptions.
Analyst coverage of Roblox outside BTIG continues to show a wide spectrum of views:
- TD Cowen maintained a Sell rating and set a $70 price target, pointing to increased parental restrictions on platform use.
- Piper Sandler reduced its price target from $180 to $125 while keeping an Overweight rating, citing a need for more conservative assumptions given the effects of age restrictions on engagement.
- Goldman Sachs remained supportive with a Buy rating and a $180 target, noting the company’s investments in artificial intelligence to enhance user and developer experiences.
- JPMorgan retained a Neutral rating with a $100 target and highlighted a recent dip in platform engagement, with peak concurrent users falling to 23 million.
- Wolfe Research reported a 10.6% weekly decline in concurrent users and said first-quarter average engagement slowed to 71% year-over-year growth, though it also noted that particular titles such as "Escape Tsunami" have shown growth in concurrent users.
These data points and diverging analyst stances underscore a mixed external view of Roblox’s near-term engagement trajectory and strategic positioning, with attention split between user activity metrics, monetization resilience and regulatory or product-led changes such as age verification.
Investors and market participants will likely focus on the upcoming earnings release for clearer signals on how these trends are translating into bookings, DAU metrics and advertising momentum.