Following the publication of Freeport-McMoRan's fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, BofA Securities reinforced its Buy rating for the mining giant, retaining a $68 price target. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) delivered adjusted EBITDA figures for the quarter that notably surpassed both BofA Securities’ and market consensus estimates. Analysts attribute this outperformance primarily to a combination of higher realized sales volumes, operational cost savings, and more favorable provisional pricing arrangements active during the period.
A significant portion of the company's copper output in Q4 2025 originated from its leaching operations, which yielded 60 million pounds. This output marks an increase relative to the 56 million pounds recorded in the preceding quarter, as well as a notable growth from 50 million pounds reported in the same quarter the previous year. Freeport-McMoRan's management has set a 2026 annual production goal for leaching operations at 300 million pounds, indicating confidence in sustained operational momentum.
In terms of forward guidance, the company made moderate revisions to its projections for 2026 sales and capital expenditures. The unit cost guidance for the year was adjusted slightly upward, driven by the company’s adoption of lower gold price assumptions. Nevertheless, BofA Securities highlights that under consistent gold price scenarios, the cost outlook remains favorable.
Recent operational challenges have not been absent from Freeport-McMoRan’s narrative. The company is actively conducting remediation following the ‘mud rush’ incident at its Grasberg site. Progress is reported to be on target, with company officials aiming to restore about 85% of Grasberg’s production by the second half of 2026. Grasberg remains one of the world’s premier copper and gold mining districts, and its full recovery is critical to Freeport-McMoRan's overall output.
CEO Kathleen Quirk reaffirmed the company's growth targets for copper production, remarking on the supportive demand dynamics, notably from sectors such as artificial intelligence. This demand is said to help counterbalance weaker trends in other markets. Quirk also emphasized Freeport’s commitment to safe and sustainable operational practices amid the ongoing recovery efforts.
Despite the robust financial performance, Freeport-McMoRan did not engage in any share repurchases during the final quarter of 2025. The company’s focus remains on executing its operational recovery plan and preparing for anticipated growth across its copper portfolio.