BofA Securities upgraded Oshkosh (NYSE: OSK) from Underperform to Neutral on Tuesday and assigned a price target of $149.00, a level close to the stock's recent market quote of $149.48. The research note said the firm sees the company's risk/reward profile as more balanced after the latest results and guidance.
The firm pointed to a "positive mix shift" across Oshkosh's business, with a growing share of profits coming from more stable segments. BofA also cited a 6% free cash flow yield and the Access division appearing to have reached trough levels as reasons why valuation risk has eased.
Oshkosh reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.26, slightly below analysts' consensus of $2.31. Revenue for the quarter came in at $2.69 billion, beating the expected $2.6 billion. Following those results, DA Davidson raised its price objective to $168 from $160 while keeping a Buy rating, noting that Oshkosh's 2026 outlook seemed "admittedly light."
BofA's upgrade follows the company lowering guidance again for its cyclical Access unit for 2026. The brokerage characterized the revised outlook as reflecting "an appropriately balanced view on construction," a position the firm believes limits further downside risk to the shares.
Other data referenced by analysts indicate Oshkosh has produced strong shareholder returns, with a 34.8% gain over the past year, and that the company carries a moderate level of debt. BofA acknowledged that some risks to earnings per share remain, but concluded that the overall reward potential relative to downside risk has improved enough to support the rating change.
The mix shift toward steadier businesses, the company’s free cash flow profile and the Access segment hitting trough levels were central to BofA's assessment. At the same time, the shortfall versus EPS expectations in the quarter and the lowered guidance for Access underline areas of ongoing uncertainty.
Investors and market participants will likely watch Oshkosh's 2026 guidance and execution closely to see whether the company can sustain revenue momentum and convert improved cash generation into durable valuation support.