BNP Paribas Exane trimmed its price target on Comcast Corp. to $28.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing escalating pricing competition within the cable industry. The firm highlighted an increase in aggressive promotional activity among cable operators, noting in particular that Comcast offered steep discounts on services during the Winter Olympics period.
According to the research note, other providers have also softened their expected pricing posture. Charter Communications did not roll out anticipated broadband price increases in the first quarter of 2026, electing instead to lift only television pricing. Meanwhile, Optimum is marketing multiple months of free service, with advertisements promoting three to four months at no charge. BNP Paribas Exane attributes these moves to intensifying competitive dynamics driven by the expansion of fixed wireless access (FWA) and the continued build-out of fiber networks, which the firm reports reached fresh highs last quarter.
As a direct consequence of that pressure, the firm lowered its cable average revenue per user (ARPU) growth assumptions for Comcast. The analysts now forecast Comcast’s ARPU to fall by 2.2% in 2026, a downgrade from their prior estimate of a 0.6% decline. For Charter, the firm—identifying it as the operator most exposed to deteriorating net additions—now projects a 2.2% decline in 2026 broadband ARPU. That contrasts sharply with consensus expectations, which forecast 2.3% broadband ARPU growth for Charter in 2026.
Market moves have reflected these headwinds. Charter’s shares have suffered notable losses, sliding 37.4% over the past six months and trading near a 52-week low at $184.58. Current valuation metrics available to market participants show Charter trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 5.13, a level the note describes as indicating the market has already priced in significant challenges for the company.
The research team also commented on ongoing speculation about a potential NBCUniversal spin-off from Comcast, expressing skepticism that such a transaction would proceed. Their view is grounded in the expectation that both parties would want to retain control, making a clean separation difficult to execute. BNP Paribas Exane said that while the spin-off speculation and the presence of what it termed "de-risked short-term numbers" factor into the Neutral rating, they do not alter the underlying concern about competitive pricing trends.
Investors should also watch near-term catalysts: Charter is due to report earnings in three days, an event the analysts said could provide useful information on subscriber trends and pricing dynamics across the sector.
On corporate finance and strategic actions, Charter recently closed $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes via its subsidiaries, CCO Holdings, LLC and CCO Holdings Capital Corp. The issuance comprised $1.75 billion of Senior Notes due 2033 carrying a 7.0% coupon and $1.25 billion of Senior Notes due 2036 carrying a 7.375% coupon. Charter indicated plans to issue additional senior unsecured notes to refinance existing debt and to potentially fund buybacks of its Class A common stock and common units.
Other sector developments noted in the research bulletin include a reiteration from KeyBanc of a Sector Weight rating on Charter Communications, with that firm citing an expected challenging broadband competitive environment in 2026. Product-level initiatives continue even as the competitive backdrop intensifies: Charter’s Spectrum brand has launched WiFi 7 Extenders available for $5 per month, designed to improve home and business WiFi coverage through cloud-based mesh technology.
Finally, in governance news, Charter disclosed that director David C. Merritt will retire from its board in January 2026, with the company stating that his departure is not the result of any disagreements. BNP Paribas Exane framed these items as part of Charter’s broader set of strategic and operational adjustments in response to sector pressures.
What this means for investors
- Pricing competition, driven by the growth of FWA and fiber, is forcing major cable providers to offer deeper discounts and promotional periods.
- Analysts have trimmed ARPU expectations for both Comcast and Charter for 2026, reflecting a more challenging revenue outlook for cable broadband services.
- Near-term corporate moves, including debt issuances and upcoming earnings, could provide additional clarity on how companies will navigate the tougher environment.