Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

BMO Capital Revises Primo Brands Price Target Amid Prolonged Recovery Phase

Analyst retains Outperform rating citing continued business stabilization investments and gradual customer direct business improvement

By Hana Yamamoto PRMB
BMO Capital Revises Primo Brands Price Target Amid Prolonged Recovery Phase
PRMB

BMO Capital has adjusted its price target for Primo Brands Corp. downward to $35.00 from $39.00 but maintains an Outperform rating, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize the business and a slower-than-expected recovery in the customer direct segment. Despite these factors, revenue growth remains robust, with a projected 29% increase in the current fiscal year. The firm anticipates a return to growth in 2026 once integration challenges subside.

Key Points

  • BMO Capital lowered Primo Brands’ price target to $35.00 but retained an Outperform rating, signaling confidence in eventual recovery despite near-term setbacks.
  • Revenue growth for Primo Brands is forecasted at 29% for the current fiscal year despite ongoing integration and stabilization investments extending into mid-2026.
  • Primo Water’s third-quarter results exceeded earnings and revenue estimates, though revenue declined slightly year-over-year, and Primo Brands expanded its share repurchase authorization to $300 million.

BMO Capital has reduced its price objective on Primo Brands Corporation (NYSE: PRMB) to $35.00 from the earlier target of $39.00, while continuing to uphold an Outperform rating on the stock. This updated target still implies notable potential for appreciation compared to the current trading price of $19.05, with InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis indicating that the shares remain undervalued at this level.

The revision in price target reflects tempered financial projections, particularly for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the year 2026. BMO Capital adjusted these forecasts to acknowledge ongoing investments aimed at business stabilization, which are expected to extend into the first half of 2026. Notwithstanding these conservatisms in estimation, revenue growth is forecasted at a robust 29% for the current fiscal year per InvestingPro data.

One contributing factor to the decreased target is the slower-than-anticipated recovery in Primo’s customer direct business segment. Although the pace of improvement has lagged behind original projections, the segment’s trajectory is positive, with sequential gains observed in the fourth quarter.

Looking ahead to 2026, BMO Capital projects this year will mark the conclusion of transient integration challenges for Primo Brands, paving the way for a reinstatement of the company’s growth trajectory. The analyst house further noted that the company’s valuation—currently around eight times BMO’s EBITDA estimate for 2026—is unlikely to be sustained as the recovery progresses.

In related developments, Primo Water Corp recently announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, posting earnings per share (EPS) of $0.41, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.35. The company also reported revenue of $1.766 billion, outperforming the anticipated $614.3 million figure but representing a small decline of 1.6% compared to the prior year.

Separately, Primo Brands expanded its share repurchase program by $50 million, bringing the total authorization to $300 million. The firm noted that approximately $202.3 million remains available for future buybacks.

Additionally, BMO Capital previously lowered its price target for Primo Brands from $42 to $39 while maintaining the Outperform rating, following third-quarter results that were in line with expectations coupled with concerns about fourth-quarter guidance.

On the governance front, Primo Brands reported a board change with the resignation of Kimberly Reed, who formerly chaired the Sustainability Committee. The company clarified Reed’s departure was not related to any disagreements.

These developments collectively highlight recent strategic financial maneuvers and evolving operational conditions at Primo Brands, alongside performance updates from Primo Water.

Risks

  • Slower-than-modeled recovery in Primo Brands’ customer direct business poses a risk to the timeline of return to growth, potentially affecting revenue streams.
  • Business stabilization investments continuing into the first half of 2026 may limit near-term profitability and cash flow.
  • Uncertainties in fourth-quarter guidance highlight potential volatility in the company’s short-term operational performance.

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