BMO Capital has raised its target for Chevron (NYSE: CVX) to $190.00 from $170.00 and maintained an Outperform rating on the integrated oil major, citing stronger fourth-quarter 2025 performance and management's reaffirmation of future production and cash flow goals. The stock is trading at $173.94, approaching a 52-week high of $177.30, and market data suggest the shares may be trading below fair value.
In its note, BMO described the most recent quarterly results as "better 4Q25 results," calling them a positive first step in implementing Chevron's enhanced 2030 outlook that targets robust growth in production, earnings, and free cash flow. The firm highlighted the operational recovery at the Tengiz oil field (TCO), which it said was fully operational again as of February and is producing near its original plan. Chevron has reiterated its 2026 free cash flow targets, a development BMO labeled "a relief" following prior downtime that weighed on the stock.
BMO pointed to strong quarterly performance across a number of Chevron assets, naming the Permian Basin, Gulf of America, Australia, the Eastern Mediterranean, other shale operations, and Guyana as contributors to the company's results. The firm also noted Chevron's 4.02% dividend yield, which the company has maintained for 56 consecutive years.
The analysts at BMO said their forward estimates for Chevron's 2026 performance and beyond improved after the company update, supporting the higher price target. They also observed that Chevron trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.56 and that management has been an aggressive buyer of stock in the market.
Other analyst developments referenced alongside BMO's call include moves by JPMorgan and HSBC. JPMorgan lifted its price target to $181, pointing to an attractive investment cycle phase following Chevron's completion of its merger with HES and to structural cost reduction initiatives that the bank expects will produce $3-4 billion in annual savings by 2026. HSBC, meanwhile, downgraded its rating on Chevron from Buy to Hold but raised its price target to $180, while continuing to recognize the company's cash flow growth and financial discipline.
Operational updates from Chevron's leadership were also summarized. The CEO reported that two mooring berths at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) have returned to service, with a third berth undergoing maintenance and expected to resume later this year. The CEO addressed a recent power outage at the Tengiz field, attributing the disruption to a mechanical issue rather than sabotage.
These developments collectively framed recent analyst revisions and reinforced the discussion around Chevron's near-term cash flow trajectory, operational resilience, and capital allocation decisions, including dividends and share repurchases.
While BMO's upward revision reflects improved visibility into Chevron's operational recovery and reiterated financial targets, brokerages remain split in their assessments, and the market continues to weigh the company's execution of its 2030 outlook against prior disruptions.